A startling New York Times-Siena College survey just reported that Democrats hold a 21-point advantage over Republicans among college-educated whites—better than they do among non-whites, e.g., support among Hispanics is virtually tied. Beltway Right types who idolize the myth of the GOP as the party of the “multiracial working class” love this news, but it’s actually not a good sign—disgracefully, the GOP/ GAP has a dismal 47 percent of the overall white vote; 17 percent are undecided—a bad exchange for marginal increases of support among minorities [Poll Shows Tight Race for Control of Congress as Class Divide Widens, by Nate Cohn, New York Times, July 13, 2022]. The GOP must win back this demographic—adopt what VDARE.com calls “The Sailer Strategy”—and the best way to do so is pounding the Democrats on education, crime, and immigration.
College-educated whites compose 26 percent of the electorate. Fifty-seven percent say they will vote Democrat in the midterms. Just 36 percent will vote Republican, and only 7 percent are undecided.
Good news is, Republicans dominate the white working-class vote: 54 percent of whites without a college education will vote Republican, 23 percent will vote Democrat, and 23 percent are undecided. This demographic is larger than college-educated whites at 39 percent of the overall vote.
The only upside is support from Hispanics and the “Other” category. Thirty-eight percent of Hispanics say they will vote Republican, 41 percent lean Democrat, and 21 percent are undecided. Even if the figure remains 38 percent, it would break records for Republicans. It was seen as a breakthrough for Trump to win 32 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2020.
The “Other” category—Asians, multiracials, and others—is even more pro-Republican. Thirty-nine percent plan to vote Republican, 34 percent Democrat, and 27 percent are undecided.
The Times-Siena poll is no outlier. CNN analyst Harry Enten averaged it with four others and found a similar trend. Enten noted that Democrats are down by 14 points among whites and up by 30 points among non-whites. The analyst found that it’s the smallest racial gap of this century and shows the highest level of minority support for the GOP in recent history [Voters of color are backing the GOP at historic levels, by Harry Enten, CNN, July 17, 2022].
That might sound good, but it doesn’t make up for the deficit among college-educated whites. Hispanics are only 13 percent of voters, while “others” are 8 percent. Combined, they’re still less numerous than college-educated whites. That’s why Democrats are favored 1 percentage point among midterm voters, according to the New York Times-Siena College poll.
However, instead of seeing a disaster, conservative pundits are thrilled. Numerous columnists and talking heads approvingly quoted an Axios write-up of the Times-Siena poll. They believe it confirms that the GOP is now the party of the “multiracial working class.”
Consider these hopeful tweets:
AXIOS: “Democrats are becoming the party of upscale voters…Republicans are quietly building a multiracial coalition of working-class voters…”— Election Wizard 🇺🇸 (@ElectionWiz) July 13, 2022
*Democrats becoming party of upscale voters prioritizing issues like gun control/abortion rights.— Daniel Garza (@danielggarza) July 15, 2022
*GOP quietly building a multiracial coalition of working-class voters, with inflation as an accelerant.
Only 28% of progressives say USA, greatest nation. 70% of Hispanics say it is https://t.co/rLGryQ4nij
Shifts in demographics of the two parties' is arguably the biggest political story of our time.— Alex Salvi (@alexsalvinews) July 14, 2022
The GOP is becoming more working class and a little more multiracial.
Democrats are becoming more elite and a little more white.
"Democrats are becoming the party of upscale voters concerned more about issues like gun control and abortion rights.— Ben Domenech (@bdomenech) July 13, 2022
"Republicans are quietly building a multiracial coalition of working-class voters, with inflation as an accelerant."
- @JoshKraushaar https://t.co/XwCEqLIzQO
But again, that’s no reason to celebrate. Republicans can’t hope to win elections if they win less than half of the white vote. Thirty-eight percent of Hispanics do not compensate for that deficiency.
It might empower Beltway conservatives to Virtue Signal about their growing diversity, but Virtue Signaling doesn’t win elections—winning the majority of whites does.
So why are college-educated whites turning away from the GOP? Many are brainwashed by the Great Awokening: liberal whites moved farther left, or turned into hard Leftists, during the past decade or so. Polling shows Leftist whites are now the demographic most avid for mass immigration, Black Lives Matter, and many other progressive issues.
Times-Siena picked up that phenomenon. Those who cared more about social issues than economic concerns were far more likely to say they would vote Democrat. The New York Times attributed this effect to heightened attention toward abortion. The survey found high levels of support for abortion: 66.5 percent among registered voters. A new FiveThirtyEight poll reported that 19 percent of voters say abortion is their leading concern. That’s up from 9 percent in early June [How Americans Feel About Abortion And Contraception, by Geoffrey Skelley and Holly Fuong, FiveThirtyEight, July 12, 2022].
Granted, Republicans can’t win over the majority of pro-choicers, especially without alienating loyal pro-lifers. As well, the GOP won’t win over those who proudly announce their pronouns and apologize for their white privilege.
But plenty of college-educated whites are neither crazy Leftists nor staunch conservatives. They just need to be won over with the right message, which means with more than just promises about the economy.
Recently elected Virginia GOP governor Glenn Youngkin provided a blueprint to win back college-educated whites without sacrificing America First principles. Youngkin won in a state most political experts considered a Democratic stronghold. His secret: He made education his top priority. He attacked Critical Race Theory, Woke education standards, and new administration standards that replaced merit with racial quotas. It was a core part of his campaign. That message helped him defeat a former governor in a state that went for Biden by 10 points.
While many conservative commentators credited non-whites for Youngkin’s victory, the crucial factor was, as usual, whites. Youngkin won 62 percent of the white vote, a significantly larger share than Trump’s 53 percent support in 2020. Youngkin’s message also increased the white portion of the vote, i.e., he spurred turnout. Whites made up 73 percent of Virginia’s vote in 2021; in 2020, they had been just 67 percent of Virginia’s vote [Exit poll results from the 2021 election for Virginia governor, Washington Post, November 2, 2022].
It’s worth observing that Youngkin only marginally improved his share of the college-educated white vote. He won 47 percent of that demographic’s vote compared to Trump’s 45 percent. But that slight improvement mattered due to the increased size of the college-educated white vote. It went from 33 percent of the vote in 2020 to 37 percent of the vote in 2021.
The GOP message on education is a popular one and resonates even among people in deep-blue cities. And it doesn’t require Republicans to adopt Leftist positions or concede Leftist talking points. In fact, it upholds conservative principles and fights over our country’s most precious resource: children.
Another example of college-educated whites voting against the Woke education standard: Affluent whites were a core demographic in the vote to remove three Leftist school board members in San Francisco earlier this year. The school board had eliminated merit-based admissions to its top schools, changed the education standards, and planned to rename facilities that honored the Founding Fathers. Even in deep-blue San Francisco, many college-educated whites, along with Asians, thought that was just too far out. The neighborhoods that voted overwhelmingly to remove the Woke educators tended to be wealthy…and white [Did Asian Voter Turnout Play a Decisive Role in the SF School Board Recall? Maybe Not, by Anna Tong, San Francisco Standard, February 22, 2022].
Leftists fear the potency of this message. A recent poll conducted by a Democratic firm found that opposition to school indoctrination wins over battleground state voters. Questions about education found strong majorities in favor of the conservative side:
One poll question found that voters, by a 32 percentage-point margin, said they were more likely to vote for candidates who believe public schools should focus less on teaching race and more on core subjects. By 27 points, they said schools should be banned from teaching sexual orientation and gender identity to kids in kindergarten through third grade. By 28 points, they said transgender athletes should be banned from competing in girls’ sports
[DeSantis‘ education message is winning in battleground states, teacher union poll finds, by Marc Caputo and Jonathan Allen, NBC News, July 15, 2022]
San Francisco provides a further example: These same demographics also voted to recall the Leftist District Attorney Chesa Boudin last month. The son of communist, cop-murdering terrorists, Boudin allowed anarchy to reign supreme. Murders and theft skyrocketed as he focused more on releasing criminals than punishing them. Well-off whites and Asians voted him out [Boudin Ousted by Coalition of Asian Voters From All Income Levels and Wealthy Whites, by Anna Tong, San Francisco Standard, June 8, 2022].
These San Franciscans would probably never, normally, vote Republican. But they do show that college-educated whites respond positively to candidates who promise to fight back against Woke indoctrination in schools and restore law and order on the streets.
Another way to appeal to college-educated whites is through VDARE’s signature issue. Last September, a surprisingly high number of college-educated white men said immigration was the most important issue facing the country [Immigration Jumps in Importance in Poll in Wake of ‘Del Rio,’ by Andrew Arthur, Center for Immigration Studies, September 29, 2021]. That was likely the result of greater media attention to the invasion of the border.
Republicans can use immigration to appeal to this demographic in two ways. First, hammer home the message that the border is in chaos, which dovetails with law and order. Second, highlight the danger H-1B visas pose to college educated workers. This visa goes to foreigners who steal high-paying white collar jobs from American natives. Corporations increasingly use it to keep wages down and eliminate American workers. Promising to curtail this visa would appeal to college-educated whites worried about losing their jobs to cheap foreign labor.
Plus, of course, crime reaching the suburbs (home invasions, anyone?) and taxes are the factors that historically have turned educated whites against the Democrats.
Commenting on the Times/Sierra poll, the New York Times’ Nate Silver argued hopefully that education, crime and immigration appear to have fallen in public attention—probably due to the Regime Media refusing to report these issues in favor of abortion and mass shootings.
But this simply means that the GOP must force these issues back before the public eye. Democrats don’t want Americans to know they’re on the side of criminals, illegal aliens, and anti-white educators. The GOP must make sure that they do know—even if it means upsetting Regime Media Talking Heads.
The Biden Admin’s open borders—achieved through willful violation & evisceration of federal law, the constitution & court rulings—must be investigated by a handpicked Select Committee in ‘23 (should GOP win majority) w/primetimes hearings, making criminal & impeachment referrals.— Stephen Miller (@StephenM) July 24, 2022
Washington Watcher II [Email him] is an anonymous DC insider.