A reader writes:
I’m in a listserv argument at the moment, where my position is that the 2020-21 spike in violence is driven by young black males. Any chance you could point me toward hard data that I can use to back it up? (Just to be clear, the list members include many Republicans with bylines; I wouldn’t ask anyone for help in an argument with Internet randos.)
As far as I can tell, the FBI’s very useful crime data stop at 2019 so they’re no use in this case.
The FBI’s annual stats, which included known murder offenders by race, are normally released in late September, so I’m not aware of any Official Data yet.
But my statistical Spidey-sense has been ringing for a year that the Racial Reckoning has unleashed a wave of black on black shootings.
I’ve got many reasons for believing this. For example:
But what do you think would be most persuasive? I’m good at figuring out what the truth is, but I’m not good at figuring out what will persuade people not to respond with their Crimestop warning. I deserve the Pulitzer Prize for Commentary for my countless pieces dissenting in real time from the Racial Reckoning by pointing out that Black Lives Matter is getting more black lives killed, but I’m more likely to win that posthumously than in my lifetime.
But which arguments are most likely to persuade normies that I’m right and the conventional wisdom is wrong?