Will Ukraine-Driven Food Shortages Spark Mass Migrations—And The End Of The Neoliberal World Order?
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Sunday’s legislative elections in France saw a historic success for Marine Le Pen and her rebranded National Rally, one few saw coming [Marine Le Pen’s far-right party gains newfound power in French election, by Abigail Adcox, Washington Examiner, June 19, 2022]. Recovering from a disappointing presidential election, the French Right now has more power in the legislature than ever, while President Emmanuel Macron has been dramatically weakened. This comes at a time when the European Union, a bastardized, anti-European organization that exists to repress the indigenous people of the Continent, is losing its unity about how to confront Russia and when war-triggered food shortages may cause a global migration surge that will dwarf the 2015-2016 wave. We are nearing the end of a cycle, perhaps the end of the neoliberal world order and the beginning of something new and superior.

March's French presidential election saw Eric Zemmour reduced to a fringe candidate in the first round and Marine Le Pen crushed by incumbent Emmanuel Macron in the runoff. This appeared to challenge the very premise of Marine Le Pen’s softened National Rally, rebranded from her father’s more hardline National Front. Just days ago, the U.K. Telegraph smirked that a confident united Left could potentially achieve an outright victory in the legislative elections while the nationalists bickered among themselves [Political demise of Eric Zemmour is a cautionary tale for the French Right, by Henry Samuel, June 13, 2022].

Indeed, Zemmour failed to make through the first round of legislative elections too and thus the leader of “Reconquest” will be remain essentially a media figure [French legislative elections: Far-right pundit Eric Zemmour loses in first round, by Brice Laemle, Le Monde, June 19, 2022]. As a VDARE.com reader pointed out, Zemmour and Le Pen were backed by different demographics. The dream of right-wing unity may have been impossible.

In contrast, the Left has united, bringing Socialists, Communists, Greens, and assorted leftists into the “Nupes” (the acronym, in French, stands for New Ecologic and Social People's Union) coalition of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and taking about 131 seats [French elections: Macron loses majority as French vote fragments, by Paul Kirby, BBC, June 19, 2022].

However, they still can’t govern, and given their opposition to Macron, they can’t join with him and retain credibility. They are trapped as much as he is [French Election: Macron’s Coalition Expected to Prevail, but Will Be Weakened in Parliament, New York Times, June 19, 2022].

The center failed to hold; President Macron’s “Jupiterian” administration no longer has an outright majority, will lose Cabinet members who lost their own legislative races, and showed a relatively small base of support in a low-turnout election [Macron faces 5 years of gridlock after stunning parliamentary defeat, by Clea Caulcutt, Politico, June 19, 2022]. While voters may have supported Macron in the presidential election to keep out the “far right,” few seem want what the technocratic, neoliberal center is selling.

Macron’s performance is especially pathetic because he’s been putting himself forward as the leader of Europe’s “civilizational” defense against Russia [Macron embraces Nietzsche’s civilizational vision, by Aris Roussinos, The Post, June 17, 2022]. Yet what defines modern European civilization except the rejection of the traditional West? The modern West is a nullity, a vague rhetorical mush about “human rights” and “democracy” that provides no real liberties or sovereignty. Our rulers appeal to traditional national symbols only cynically.

We can see this in the ideological incoherence of the Western defense of Ukraine. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen recently welcomed Ukraine into the “European family” and hailed its “determination to live up to European values and standards” [The European Commission proposes making Ukraine an EU membership candidate, In-Cyprus, June 17, 2022]. But Ukraine is restricting the Russian language—the majority language in some areas of Ukraine—in what Reuters delicately calls a “cultural break” [Ukraine to restrict Russian books, music in latest cultural break from Moscow, by Max Hunder, June 19, 2022]. I don’t think Reuters would be so favorable to European nations banning Arabic, or, for that matter, the U.S. making English the official national language.

Modern Europe is a nullity because those who presume to rule it represent no authentic tradition, no pride in their history or identity, and have no vision beyond serving as clerks for a large-scale shopping mall. If Ukraine is to truly survive beyond this war, it must beware of Brussels attacking its independence, not just Moscow.

And yet, in one of history’s glorious jokes, it may be Europe’s reduction to a “common market” instead of a sacral empire that may force change. Europe’s decision to move away from Russian imports is leading to a catastrophic increase in fuel costs [Harsh winters await if Europe doesn’t act fast on impending gas crisis, by Robin Mills, National News, June 19, 2022]. Whatever environmental progress “Green” parties have made will be undone as the Continent is returning to coal plants to make up the difference [Germany to fire up coal stations as Russia squeezes gas supply, by Inke Kappeler and Tara John, CNN Business, June 19, 2022]. Inflation is becoming so significant that ordinary people can’t help but notice.

Europeans may not support the Russian invasion of Ukraine but they don’t want their own countries to be plunged into recession so their rulers can preen on the world stage. Polls show that outside eastern Europe, most Europeans would prefer immediate peace rather than continued fighting [‘Justice’ for Ukraine overshadowed by cost of living concerns, polling shows by Jon Henley, The Guardian, June 15, 2022].

Yet the real catalyst that could destroy Europe is not the war itself but the food shortages that are resulting from it and the migration waves those will engender. Russia controls the Black Sea and has cut off supplies of sunflower oil, cereals, and other essential staples [The war in Ukraine triggered a global food shortage, by Heinz Strubenhoff, Brookings, June 14, 2022]. Surging diesel prices and rising costs of fertilizer could even cause a food shortage in the U.S. [Record diesel prices could lead to food shortages in US, farmers warn, by Snejana Farberov, New York Post, June 17, 2022].

Already, the UN World Food Program is warning that the world could face “destabilization, mass starvation, and migration on an unprecedented scale, and at a far greater cost” [Russia war will have “shattering” effect on food shortages in Africa: “You’re going to see governments fall,” by Caitlin McFall, Fox News, May 27, 2022]. Africa will be particularly hard hit, with cooking oil in Somalia more than doubling in price and the U.N. warning of as many as 13 million people facing starvation [War in Ukraine adds to food price hikes, hunger in Africa, AP, May 30, 2022].

Rising food prices and newly-elected Leftist governments, which don’t have a great history of dealing with food shortages anyway, will drive more “punishment migration” to the U.S. from Latin America, as failed governments get to dump their dependents on us [How food inflation is swallowing Latin America’s dietary staples, Financial Times, June 16, 2022]. We’ll also get a wave from Africa, as about 346 million people are supposedly “at risk” according to the Red Cross [Nothing To Eat, International Committee of the Red Cross, May 30, 2022].

Who will suffer the most from this? Americans and Europeans, whose governments have set them on the road to economic ruin and demographic replacement. COVID-19 policies, ridiculous spending including sending billions to Ukraine, the celebration of rising crime, and sanctions that seem to be hurting the West more than Russia—all of this is breaking the Western middle class.

It is very hard to believe that this is not by design. When the U.S. overthrew Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya, the resulting migration wave from Africa to Europe, which he had previously blocked, wasn’t a negative externality, but something that the European political class actively welcomed. The coming invasion the West faces is also not a bug, but a feature, of America’s deliberately destructive stewardship of the world. Breaking sovereign nations, destroying the middle class, and flooding what’s left of the First World with the Third is part of the plan to end the West.

It’s a risky strategy for our rulers because their victory abroad is not guaranteed. Russia, China, and other powers no longer want to play by the West’s rules. Our occupiers will put their geopolitical goals over domestic problems [The World Has a Choice: Work Together Or Fall Apart, New York Times Editorial Board, June 18, 2022]. There may be no money for infrastructure, border security, or for struggling Americans, but there will always be money for war and international aid programs to create even more dependents and future migrants [US, banks, unveil plan to ease food crisis from Russia’s war, AP, May 18, 2022].

Not only will we be expected to accept unlimited refugees, but the latest immigration agreement commits the United States to waste even more money in Latin America [Fact Sheet: Vice President Harris Announces New Commitments Supporting Women’s Economic Empowerment in Latin America, White House, June 7, 2022].

You might get away with all this in a time of prosperity, but Europeans and Americans may prove very receptive to a leader who promises to end these failed schemes and put their own nations first. Le Pen’s rebound shows at least some Frenchmen see that there’s a problem.

Republicans may comfort themselves that a “Red Wave” this fall will put a stop to all this. But we must take care it won’t actually make things worse. The Trump Administration did not change foreign policy assumptions within Conservatism Inc. A Republican Congress may decide we need to do more and spend more to stop Russia, China, or Iran, with the typical GOP cowardice on domestic issues compensated by its bloodlust when it comes to foreign affairs. The GOP’s fiscal conservatism stops at the water’s edge.

Similarly, the U.K.’s wildly unpopular Boris Johnson is replacing his own population but seeking prestige by repeatedly visiting Ukraine to pose as a hero and shame people into sacrificing even more [Ukraine round-up: UK PM warns of ‘Ukraine fatigue’ as Zelensky visits front-line cities, BBC, June 19, 2022]. Macron is doing the same, suddenly sounding far more hawkish about the war than he did just weeks ago, with Germany also tagging along like the humiliated American colony that it is [France and Germany Stand With Ukraine, And Putin Can Wait, by Roger Cohen, New York Times, June 16, 2022].

Le Pen, whatever her flaws, at least has built a political force sufficiently powerful that no one can pretend Macron is the “right-wing” whom Leftists can challenge. The real opposition in France to the System remains on the Right, and as the System fails, that’s where the Right wants to be.

We are nearing desperate times, what Guillaume Faye called a “Convergence of Catastrophes” [Is This the Convergence of Catastrophes?, by Gregory Hood and Jared Taylor, American Renaissance, November 2, 2021].

There is one slim hope. The course our rulers have taken means the ordinary cost-of-living is going to get worse for just about everyone in the West. That may have a greater impact at the ballot box than the System’s stupid show trials, racial moral panics, and hectoring from hysterical journalists.

All the System has left is naked repression, sometimes done through the private sector but increasingly directly through the state. The lie of liberalism can only survive when its nature is disguised as the obscenity of the “Open Society.” In reality, we live under a system far more intrusive and hypocritical than the “authoritarian” ones that journalists tell us we must fear.

The rise of the National Rally won’t save France any more than a Republican Congress will save America. However, an existential crisis is on the way and there are at least the beginnings of a real opposition. Our ideas are more popular than they were during the Trump Administration. The multicultural “democracies” foisted on the postwar West, conquered from within and without, can’t even provide the basics of merely competent government. But our elite is too committed to their illusions to change course.

We can’t vote our way out of this, at least not in one election in one country. However, elections at least show us that some people want to be saved. For that reason, I regard the National Rally’s success as a positive sign. The popular base we need exists in every Western nation. We simply lack funding and platform access. This is the moment for local organization, mutual aid groups, and a spirit of pan-Western resistance to the common foe.

That foe is not in Moscow. It’s in our own capitals.

James Kirkpatrick [Email him | Tweet him @VDAREJamesK] is a Beltway veteran and a refugee from Conservatism Inc. His latest book is Conservatism Inc.: The Battle for the American Right. Read VDARE.com Editor Peter Brimelow's Preface here.

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