But wait: the “other” employment survey, of households rather than employers, seems far closer to economic reality, given the meteorological debacle we went through last month. The survey of households found only 96,000 jobs were added last month, down from 759,000 it reported in January.
The Household Survey also provides insight into another conundrum: the absence of meaningful wage growth among American workers. With high rates of job growth and an unemployment rate that is approaching a normal, healthy level, you would expect workers to have more leverage to demand raises. But the latest job report offers no real evidence of this. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% in February, down sharply from the 0.5% reported in January.
February’s wage stall is hardly surprising given the anemic Household job growth total—and, more importantly, the distribution of jobs between foreign-born a.k.a. immigrant and native-born American.
In February 2015:
Typically, several talking heads have recently blamed February’s wage stall on the retirement of high income Baby Boomers rather than the renewed displacement of native-born workers by low income immigrants. The MSM’s blackout of the immigration dimension of employment and income issues remains extraordinary. (But see below).
Our New VDARE.com American Worker Displacement Index (NVDAWDI) graphs employment growth of native-born Americans, immigrants, and the excess of immigrant over native-born job growth, during the Obama years:
(Note that you can now mouse-over get the underlying data! But this won’t show up if you’re reading VDARE.com on a mobile device).
Native-born American employment growth is the black line, immigrant employment growth is in pink, and NVAWDI—the ratio of immigrant to native-born American job growth—is in yellow. The index starts at 100.0 for both immigrants and native-born Americans in January 2009, and tracks their employment growth since then.
From January 2009 to February 2015:
The immigrant share of total employment rose to 16.82% in February, up from 16.75% the prior month. In only five of the 74 months of Obama’s tenure have immigrant workers accounted for a larger share of total U.S. employment than they did in February.
More importantly, February’s foreign-born employment share was 1.85 percentage points, or about 12%, above the level recorded in February 2009, the first full month of Mr. Obama’s administration.
With total employment now at a record 148.3 million, every one percentage point rise in the foreign-born employment share translates to as many as 1,483,000 displaced native-born American workers. Implication: Obama-era immigration may have pushed as many as 2,744,000 (1.85 times 1,483,000) native-born Americans onto the unemployment rolls.
A detailed snapshot of American worker displacement over the past year is seen in the “Employment Status of the civilian population by nativity” table published in the monthly BLS report:
|Employment Status by Nativity, Feb. 2014-Feb. 2015(numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted)|
|Foreign born, 16 years and older|
|Civilian labor force||25,421||26,276||855||3.4%|
|Participation rate (%)||66.6%||65.2%||-1.4%||-2.1%|
|Unemployment rate (%)||6.9%||5.8%||-1.1%||-15.9%|
|Not in labor force||12,768||14,023||1,255||9.8%|
|Native born, 16 years and older|
|Civilian labor force||129,606||129,937||331||0.3%|
|Participation rate (%)||62.0%||62.0%||0.0%||0.0%|
|Unemployment rate (%)||7.0%||5.8%||-1.2%||-17.1%|
|Not in labor force||79,291||79,663||372||0.5%|
|Source: BLS, The Employment Situation - February 2015, Table A-7, March 6, 2015. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf|
We welcome Caroline to the club! Maybe some politician will finally notice.
Final note: also unreported in the MSM, the recent data appears to show an acceleration in foreign-born population growth.
The latest Household Survey shows that the foreign-born population of working age rose by 2.112 million from February 2014 to February 2015. The prior month’s report saw it growing by 1.8 million over the January 2014 to January 2015 period. Both figures are well over twice the 900,000 to one million estimate generally used for total annual legal immigration into the U.S.
America’s post-1965 immigration disaster may be intensifying.