We delayed our monthly commentary on immigrant displacement of American workers, based on our analysis of the federal government’s updated unemployment data, to include our new charts—above, the relentless influx of immigrant workers into the U.S. job market since Obama took office in 2009. Note that you can now mouse-over get the underlying data! (But this won’t show up if you’re reading VDARE.com on a mobile device).
In January, employers added 257,000 new workers to their payrolls according to the payroll survey. The survey of households reported an even stronger job gain—of 759,000.
January marked the second successive month in which native-born American workers gained jobs while immigrants lost them. But this, of course, is an anomaly. Over the whole 12 months since last January foreign-born employment has risen by 4.6%—dwarfing the 1.6% gain in native-born American employment over that period. (See table below.)
The first month of the year is one of the most difficult to calculate job creation, what with companies laying off workers hired for the holidays and the weather. A particularly bad January will decimate employment in construction and landscaping—occupations in which immigrants are over represented. The result: there are more surprises, both up and down, in January employment growth than in any other month.
In January 2015:
Native-born American employment growth is the red line, immigrant employment growth is in green, and NVAWDI—the ratio of immigrant to native-born American job growth—is in blue. The index starts at 100.0 for both immigrants and native-born Americans in January 2009, and tracks their employment growth since then. From January 2009 to January 2015:
It is 1.85 percentage points (or 12.4%) above the share recorded in the first full month of the Obama Administration. With total employment now at a record 148.2 million, every one percentage point rise in the foreign-born employment share translates to as many as 1,482,000 displaced native-born American workers. Implication: as many as 2,742,000 (1.85 times 1,482,000) native-born Americans were unemployed in January 2015 due to Obama-era immigration.
A detailed snapshot of American worker displacement over the past year is seen in the “Employment Status of the civilian population by nativity” table published in the monthly BLS report:
|Employment Status by Nativity, Jan. 2014-Jan. 2015 (numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted)|
|Foreign born, 16 years and older|
|Civilian labor force||25,139||26,073||934||3.7%|
|Participation rate (%)||65.9%||65.2%||-0.7%||-1.1%|
|Unemployment rate (%)||6.7%||5.8%||-0.9%||-13.4%|
|Not in labor force||13,026||13,894||868||6.7%|
|Native born, 16 years and older|
|Civilian labor force||129,241||129,977||736||0.6%|
|Participation rate (%)||61.9%||62.0%||0.1%||0.2%|
|Unemployment rate (%)||7.1%||6.1%||-1.0%||-14.1%|
|Not in labor force||79,508||79,780||272||0.3%|
|Source: BLS, The Employment Situation - January 2015, Table A-7, February 6, 2015. PDF|
But will native-born American workers remain confident for the long-haul? Probably not. Just look at the extraordinary differential between immigrant and native-born American population growth. From January 2014 to January 2015 the foreign-born population of working age grew by 1.802 million, or by 4.7%; the comparable native-born population rose by 1.007 million, a gain of just 0.5%.
Extrapolating these growth rates we find that the foreign-born population of working-age will double in about 15.3 years. It will take 144 years for the native-born American population to match that. By then, of course, immigrants will dominate the U.S. workforce. Income growth will be a distant memory—for all except new immigrants and the upper 1% of the native-born.
Edwin S. Rubenstein (email him) is President of ESR Research Economic Consultants.