The Washington Post headline that frightened a thousand GOP hacks this morning: Poll: Immigration a quandary for Republicans [by Jon Cohen and Dan Balz, July 23, 2013]
Majorities of Americans support the two main pillars of immigration reform — increasing border security and a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. But partisan, racial and ethnic divisions dampen overall public support for a comprehensive reform package, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll...The findings also underscore how the legislative battle ahead presents House Republicans with the prospect of satisfying the party’s base at a cost of diminishing the party’s prospects of winning future national elections.
(Link in original, Emphases added throughout).
Curiously, WaPo also carries this morning a decisive refutation of this alamism: The House will not pass the Senate immigration bill. Here’s why. By Aaron Blake:
Much of the coverage of the immigration issue has focused on the fact that a path to citizenship is popular and that Americans want Congress to pass something. So when the Senate passed a bill that included a path to citizenship along with tough new border security elements that earned some GOP support, it seemed like an approach that Americans could support.
But this poll makes it pretty clear that the American people aren’t really all that on-board with the Senate bill, and thus there is no overwhelming pressure on Boehner and GOP leaders to allow a vote on it.
Basically Blake's argument is that "Americans" are actually more or less evenly split on the legislation, but that the opposition is more intense. So it's not a "quandry for Republicans" at all.
And there's more. As usual with the MSM, the immigration question is loaded pollaganda:
Q: As you may know, the U.S. Senate passed an immigration law that includes (a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants now living in the United States), and (stricter border control at a cost of 46 billion dollars). Given what you know about it, do you support or oppose the immigration law passed by the Senate?
Why not "Amnesty for illegal aliens"? Why not "alleged stricter border control"?
Even so, opinion is indeed split and opposition more intense:
Support 46% (Support STRONGLY 19%, Support SOMEWHAT 27%). Oppose 44% (Oppose SOMEWHAT 14%, Oppose, STRONGLY 30%). No opinion 10%
But what's really significant is that the Senate's Amnesty/ Immigration Surge bill is clearly opposed, and particularly intensely, by Whites
Support 41% (Support STRONGLY 15%, Support SOMEWHAT 26%). Oppose 50 (Oppose, SOMEWHAT 15%, Oppose, STRONGLY 35). No opinion 8%
As I've pointed out before, these are the people who are actually going to vote for the GOP (a.k.a. GAP—the "Generic American Party").
The sad reality is that it no longer makes any sense to poll "Americans." Immigration policy has produced a bipolar distribution within the US population, with whites on one side and minorities (and to some extent Jews) on the other. Both metaphorically and literally, this is America and Anti-America. The Obama Adminstration is a Minority Occupation Government. This is a profoundly unstable situation.
P.S. The WaPo-ABC poll also reveals that White Evangelical Protestants are extremely opposed to the Senate's Amnesty/ Immigration Surge.
Support 28% (Support, STRONGLY 13%, Support, SOMEWHAT 15%). Oppose 63% (Oppose SOMEWHAT 18, Oppose STRONGLY 45%). No opinion 9%.
This of course completely confirms Allan Wall's contention that the much-publicized Soros-funded Evangelical Immigration Table is a scam.