From the New York Times:
Immigration Reform: Disparate Ideas, Disparate FuturesI know we aren’t supposed to use analogies when thinking about immigration policy, because analogies are conducive to rational thought, while immigration policy is supposed to be decided based solely upon schmaltz. Still, immigration policy can be compared to college admissions policies. Trump says America should have an Ivy League admissions policy, while Hillary says America deserves a community college admissions policy.
By Eduardo Porter
ECONOMIC SCENE SEPT. 20, 2016
Under Mr. Trump’s anti-immigrant proposals, the American population would probably shrink to 323 million by 2024, about one million fewer people than today and 22 million fewer people than the Census Bureau’s projections for eight years from now.
There is another side to the story, too: With Hillary Clinton as the next president, the population of the United States is more likely to increase to 360 million in 2024, from 324 million today.
Of course, these disparate futures, estimated by Joseph Chamie, a demographer who once headed the United Nations Population Division, rely on a few assumptions. Mr. Trump would expel 11 million immigrants who are illegally in the country; Mrs. Clinton would legalize them. Future migration in a Trumpian America would fall to zero but would rise if Mrs. Clinton were president, as many newly legalized residents brought their families along.
The gap — 37 million people, more than a tenth of the population — underscores how powerfully immigration policy will shape the future of the United States.