Earlier by Steve Sailer: ECONOMIST: America Is Experiencing the Worst Recorded Increase in Its National Murder Rate
From the Gun Violence Archive, a nonprofit that tracks gun violence from 7500 online sources, here is my version of their stats from the last two years:
|GUN VIOLENCE ARCHIVE|
|PUBLISHED DATE: January 20, 2021||2019||2020||Chg||Chg %|
|Total Number of GV Deaths – ALL Causes||39,525||43,465||3,940||10%|
|Total Number of Injuries||30,140||39,404||9,264||31%|
|Number of Children (age 0-11)||Killed||209||293||84||40%|
|Number of Teens (age 12-17)||Killed||778||1,068||290||37%|
|Officer Involved Incident-Officer Killed or Injured||Killed||71||59||-12||-17%|
|Officer Involved Incident-Subject-Suspect Killed or Injured||Killed||1,286||1,288||2||0%|
If you take their row of “Homicide/Murder/Unintentional/DGU (Defensive Gun Use)” and subtract out their Unintentional Shooting and Defensive Use rows, I wind up with this estimate:
|iSteve estimate:||2019||2020||Chg||Chg %|
In early January, I looked through local newspaper accounts of 2020 in crime for 108 of the 200 largest cities and found murders in that sample (which accounted for 45% of national murders in 2019) up 38% over 2019. I figured the murder increase would be lower in smaller municipalities, so I estimated the national murder toll would be 25-30%. So I find 31% plausible.
If this increase in gun murders turns out to be real, I expect the 2020 increase in murders of all kinds to be a few percentage points lower. But that would likely still be twice the previous biggest increases in murders since 1960: 12.7% in 1968 and 12.1% in 2015 (the first BLM era).
How much we can trust this database, I couldn’t say. But it has been around for a number of years now, and the numbers don’t look obviously implausible.
By looking at which type of shootings went up in 2020, we can get a sense of who was doing the incremental shooting.
So, it sure sounds to me like the big growth in murders in 2020 was driven by more black shootings, typically of other blacks.