It may be … that there is something in the national character of the Germans that damps down, more than elsewhere, people's willingness to be open about their discontents.The latest from the exit polls at early afternoon Sunday EST (so voting in Germany is pretty much finished) have the AfD at over 13 percent, which suggests a modest Dinkins-Bradley effect.
We'll get a test of that theory on Sunday, when we either see or don't see a Dinkins-Bradley effect. It's a Dinkins effect in New York, a Bradley effect in Los Angeles, but the idea is the same. When this effect is in play, people tell pollsters they'll vote for the politically correct candidate — Tom Bradley for Mayor of L.A. in 1982, David Dinkins for Mayor of New York in 1989 — but then, in the actual voting booth, a significant number do otherwise.
If [the National Conservative, immigration-restrictionist party] AfD gets a bigger vote share than the nine or ten percent they're showing in the pre-election polls, that'll be a Dinkins-Bradley effect. [At 31m32s here.]
It also guarantees that AfD will be the third biggest party represented in the Bundestag (national legislature), in which they formerly had no representation at all.