Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management, articulated the consensus view of his professional peers: “This is a very muscular report. It’s showing powerful job creation, no matter how one cares to slice it.”[Hiring rebounds in September; unemployment rate falls to 5.9 percent, By Ylan Q. Mui, October 3, 2014]
Well, I guess we take a unique slice of economic life here at VDARE.com. Unique because (with one or two very recent exceptions) mainstream economists and journalists simply avert their eyes to the overarching reality of American worker displacement by immigrants (to say nothing of their effect on wages).
From a distance, the Household Survey confirms the good news reported in the more widely cited survey of business establishments. In fact, at 232,000 the September Household Survey found job creation chugging along at 15-times the anemic rate it reported for August.
But the Devil is in the Politically Incorrect details.
Never during the Obama years have American workers been as whiplashed by immigrants as they were in August and September.
The gap between immigrant and native-born job growth pushed our New VDARE.com American Worker Displacement Index (NVDAWDI) to another record high. The August/September bloodbath is clear in the following chart:
Native-born American employment growth is the blue line, immigrant employment growth is in pink, and NVAWDI—the ratio of immigrant to native-born American job growth—is in yellow. The index starts at 100.0 for both immigrants and native-born Americans in January 2009, and tracks their employment growth since then.
From January 2009 to September 2014:
In August of this year the immigrant share of total employment was a record 16.80%. In September it hit another record: 17.03%.
The immigrant share of total employment has risen steadily, albeit erratically, since the start of the Obama years. Over the past two months what had been a glacial trend turned torrential:
No, the right hand spike isn’t a slip of the pen. It reflects BLS data.
With total U.S. employment running at about 146 million, every one-tenth of one percent increase in employment share translates to 146,000 more workers. From July 2014 to September 2014 the immigrant share of total employment rose from 16.35% to 17.03%—a gain of 0.68 percentage points. That implies that as many as 993,000 native-born Americans may be out of work in this period due to immigration.
Once again data by race and ethnicity seem to confirm the discomfort felt by native-born workers. While unemployment rates for Whites and Blacks both declined in September by 0.2 percentage points—the same as the national rate. The unemployment rate for Hispanics, a disproportionately immigrant group, fell by 0.6 percentage points, to 6.9%.
A more detailed snapshot of American worker displacement over the past year is seen in Household Survey data published in the monthly job report:
|Employment Status by Nativity, Sept. 2013-Sept. 2014(numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted)|
|Foreign born, 16 years and older|
|Civilian labor force||25,713||26,238||525||2.0%|
|Participation rate (%)||66.2%||65.8%||-0.4%||-0.6%|
|Unemployment rate (%)||6.5%||4.6%||-1.9%||-29.2%|
|Not in labor force||13,142||13,622||480||3.7%|
|Native born, 16 years and older|
|Civilian labor force||129,823||129,666||-157||-0.1%|
|Participation rate (%)||62.6%||62.2%||-0.4%||-0.6%|
|Unemployment rate (%)||7.1%||6.0%||-1.1%||-15.5%|
|Not in labor force||77,491||78,921||1,490||1.8%|
|Source: BLS, The Employment Situation—September 2014, Table A-7, October 3, 2014. PDF|
Over the past 12 months: