MSM Freakout! Sailer Strategy Working For Trump In Key Swing States
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The Quinnipiac University poll caused quite a stir Tuesday morning by reporting Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump essentially tied in the swing states of Florida (Clinton 43%-Trump 42%) and Pennsylvania (43%-42%), with Trump actually ahead in Ohio 39%-43%, above Quinnipiac's 3% margin of error [May 10, 2016 - Clinton-Trump Close In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds, Quinnipiac University Release Detail].

Quinnipiac's commentary focuses on the fashionable "gender gap," making the interesting point that Trump's deficit among women is matched or exceeded by Clinton's deficit among men. But its racial data is just "white" and "non-white" and is not broken out by age and gender. Still, enough is available to make clear that the "Sailer Stategy" of focusing on the white (formerly known as "American") vote, long advocated on, above all in the Rust Belt states, is what is working for Trump:

  • Florida—Trump wins whites 52%—33%.
  • Pennsylvania—Trump wins whites 48%-37%.
  • Ohio—Trump wins whites 49%—32%.
Note that in each case, quite large fractions of whites told Quinnipiac they didn't know/ would vote for a Third Party/would stay home.  Some of these are probably conventional Republicans currently swayed by the Conservatism Inc. temper tantrum, which suggests Trump's white share has room to grow.

Needless to say, the MSM Narrative-setters hated this poll and immediately set to work to spin it: A new poll shows Trump beating Clinton in Ohio — but it assumes a pretty white electorate, by Philip Bump, Washington Post, May 10, 2016 [the difference is actually only a couple of percentage points]; The November freakout begins: It’s May, so let’s all go crazy over a few good polls for Trumpby Simon Maloy, Salon, May 10, 2016.

The fact remains however, that, as we have noted before, the data suggest that the white giant is stirring.


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