Ed Rubenstein, our National Data guy, writes
32,512 illegals were apprehended along the SW border in June. This is 40.5% more than in May, and nearly double April's catch—but less than one-third the number caught in June 2019.
Below, the Washington Post's Nick Miroff says that illegal immigration is "highly attuned to changes in US enforcement and expectations for a successful trip."
That means that when Trump is allowed to enforce the law, and not prevented by Kritarchs, illegal entry goes down. (See NYT Reveals Family Separation Was Working—Until A Judge Shut It Down.) But if no one wants to enforce the law (as under Bush and Obama) it goes up.
Miroff points out that if Biden is elected, there will be a huge rush for the border and this "would be an immediate challenge for a Biden admin."
Well, actually, it would be an immediate challenge for America, since the Biden administration would just let it happen.
The Trump immigration roller coaster has shown, once again, that irregular migration and the smuggling networks that drive much of it are highly attuned to changes in US enforcement and expectations for a successful trip. This would be an immediate challenge for a Biden admin. pic.twitter.com/RnLmHrBoTe— Nick Miroff (@NickMiroff) July 9, 2020
Remember, when you see headlines like Arrests along Mexico border jumped 40% last month, defying Trump immigration crackdown (also by Miroff), what they're really defying is American law. A Biden administration could expected to let them.
Not an immediate good sign...But in June 2019, apprehensions hovered at 104,000—more than three times what was witnessed this past month. https://t.co/KkupxFiCbF— Matthew Tragesser (@MatthewTrag) July 9, 2020
Here's our latest chart of historical apprehensions: