By The Rockets' Red Glare, Polls Say Trump Is Still There. (But VP Pick Better Appeal To White Base).
July 03, 2016, 07:07 PM
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"The rockets' red glare, the bombs bursting in air..." To adapt that song everyone seems to be singing, Donald Trump is currently being hit by a hostile MSM barrage unprecedented since the 1964 Goldwater campaign—albeit paralleled, perhaps, by the post-Brexit MSM temper tantrum. But although no-one seems to have noticed, he's still there:
  • A June 30th poll by Rasmussen Reports shows Trump leading Clinton 43%-39%.
  • A Gravis poll reported by Real Clear Politics July  2 has Clinton up only 50%-48%, within the margin of error
Gravis does not break its results out by race (although it does say 2 percent of its sample is Muslim, the first time I've seen that in a national poll).

Rasmussen, however, does make its cross-tabs available to its Platinum subscribers. They show Trump getting 47% of the white vote vs. 37% for Clinton. "Some other candidate" gets 11%; Not sure just 4%. (Curiously, Trump is getting a relatively strong 19% of blacks and 44% of "other"—Rasmussen-speak for Hispanics and Asians).

This reflects a jump in Trump's white support. In the previous week's Rasmussen survey, which showed Clinton ahead 39%-44%, Trump led among whites only 43%-40%.

But it's still not enough. Trump could and should carry whites by at least the 60% share the GOP Congressional candidates got in 2010 and 2014. Even if you allocated the Other and No Sure vote equally, he's still not at that level.

Moral: Trump doesn't need a Politically Correct minority or female pick for VP. He should pick a white male who could rally the base against Clinton's threatened Merkel-type Immigration Surge. My suggestion (not for the first time): Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach.