California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger wowed the New York audience during his speech at the Republican National Convention late last month.
Schwarzenegger was so impressive that political insiders immediately began to speculate about what his odds might be if he were to become a candidate for president in 2008.
If Schwarzenegger is interested—and his friends say he is—at least two hurdles await him.
First, Schwarzenegger must be re-elected California governor in 2006. But since his likely opponent is democratic State Treasurer Phil Angelides, Schwarzenegger would seem a shoo-in.
Nothing turns voters off more than dreary green eyeshade types like Angelides droning on about budget deficits and the looming financial crisis.
Schwarzenegger's second challenge is the U.S. Constitution. Passing an amendment to allow naturalized legal immigrants who have lived in the US for two decades or more to become presidential candidates might not be easy—especially without Democratic support. But for the sake of this column, let's assume the hypothetical amendment passes.
Here is a tally-sheet of Schwarzenegger's assets and liabilities as a presidential candidate:
By 2008, whether Bush wins or loses in 2004, a close affiliation with the Bush White House might be a political liability—especially if the war in Iraq continues poorly.
Schwarzenegger's decision not to campaign on behalf of Bush in Ohio immediately following the convention is telling. Any overly enthusiastic endorsement of the Bush presidency or activism on his behalf could come back to haunt Schwarzenegger.
Schwarzenegger's political future depends in large part about what happens to the once Golden State.
Right now, Schwarzenegger is still on his political honeymoon but it will be over long before 2008 rolls around.
Unless California can turn around virtually every social crisis it faces, Schwarzenegger's hopes for the White House will go down the drain along with the state.
[JOENOTE TO VDARE.COM READERS: One thing clear in Schwarzenegger's brief year as Governor is that he is not going to sign a driver's license bill for illegal aliens.
When Schwarzenegger left California for New York, a wild rumor circulated on the Internet that Lt. Gov Cruz Bustamante would take advantage by submitting the bill to the legislature for a vote. That never developed
Instead, two weeks ago when Schwarzenegger returned, he vetoed the bill without hesitation.
Schwarzenegger may be a political rookie. But he has more savvy than his predecessor, Gray Davis, about how Californians feel about licenses for aliens.
Joe Guzzardi [email him], an instructor in English at the Lodi Adult School, has been writing a weekly column since 1988. It currently appears in the Lodi News-Sentinel.