Murder would fall by 91 percent in an all-white New York City.
On November 22, Donald Trump retweeted an image with inaccurate information about race and crime.
Here's the Tweet he should have sent:
— American Renaissance (@AmRenaissance) November 25, 2015
These figures are from New York City’s annual crime report. The report does not calculate crime rates for a hypothetical all-white New York City–the police chief would be fired if he did that–but it includes demographics for the city as follows: Whites: 32.8 percent, Blacks: 22.6 percent, Hispanics: 28.9 percent. To calculate the murder rate if the city were all white, you divide the percentage of arrests that are white by the white percentage of the population: 2.9 percent ÷ 32.8 percent = 8.84 percent. That results in a reduction in the crime rate of: 100 percent – 8.84 percent = 91.16 percent. [See below if you didn’t follow that.]
You can also calculate how much more likely a black or Hispanic is to be arrested for a violent crime than a white. For murder, a black is 31 times more likely and a Hispanic is 9 times more likely. A black is an astonishing 77 times more likely than a white to be arrested for a lethal or non-lethal shooting, and a Hispanic 18 times more likely. Guns are a problem all right–but the problem is overwhelmingly because of blacks and Hispanics, not whites.
Despite liberal dogma, these figures represent real racial differences in crime rates, not police bias. For them to represent bias, the police would deliberately have to arrest innocent blacks and Hispanics and let whites go. It would be crazy to arrest innocent people. New York City juries are racially very mixed and will not convict without good evidence. And does anyone really think the police don’t bother to look for a shooter if witnesses say he was white? Besides, whites are only 51.5 percent of the NYPD, which is 15.6 percent black, 26.7 percent Hispanic, and 6.2 percent Asian.
The figures for New York are not an aberration. Similar data used to be available from Chicago until Rahm Emanuel was elected mayor. According to the most recent data, which are from 2010, a Chicago black was 32 times more likely than a Chicago white to be arrested for murder; a Hispanic was nine times more likely. A black was 38 times more likely than white to be arrested for robbery, and a Hispanic was six times more likely. If Chicago were all white, the murder and robbery rates would plummet by 93 percent, rape by 87 percent, and assault by 85 percent. The figures for Chicago are probably worse now. You can see why the mayor wants to hide them.
Chicago used to report arrests by sex, and men are more violent than women: 13 times more likely than women to be arrested for murder and 19 times more likely to be arrested for robbery. That doesn’t surprise anyone. People are more wary around strange men than they are around strange women–and so are the police. No one shrieks about “sex profiling” when Chicago police arrest a lot more men than women.
Please note that the sex multiples for Chicago–13 times for murder and 19 times for robbery–are about half the black/white multiples of 32 and 38. Men are more dangerous than women, but blacks are a lot more dangerous compared to whites.
Donald Trump’s next tweet should be: “Chicago men 13 to 19 times more dangerous than women. Chicago blacks 32 to 38 times more dangerous than whites.” That’s 113 characters.
If you are interested in the facts on race and crime, you will want to read the update–coming out in just a few weeks–of our report, The Color of Crime. This data in this article is just an advance sample of the eye-opening information we have uncovered.
How to calculate the crime rate for an all-white New York City.
Imagine a city that is 50 percent white and 50 percent non-white, where there are 100 murders every year, and whites commit 10 of them (10 percent). If all the non-whites were replaced by whites who were precisely as likely to commit murder as the whites who already live in the city, the number of murders committed by whites would double to 20. That is 20 percent of the previous annual rate of 100 murders. Since the 90 murders committed by non-whites would not happen, the new murder rate of 20 per year would reflect an 80 percent drop.
Jared Taylor [Email him] is editor of American Renaissance and the author of Paved With Good Intentions: The Failure of Race Relations in Contemporary America. (For Peter Brimelow’s review, click here.) His most recent book is White Identity.