A reader writes:
The Wall St. Journal in its news pages points to the "crucial role of Hispanics" in this election? [Democrats Take Control of House By Jackie Calmes And David Rogers November 8, 2006]Can you find me a few where that was the case?
Oh, jeez, that again. If you prodded a Washington political reporter awake from a deep sleep and told him to start typing, his fingers would automatically punch in "the crucial Hispanic swing vote."
He probably has it on a macro.
Compared to the 2002 midterms
, the GOP`s Hispanic share
of the vote dropped from 38% to 29%, 9 points down, while the GOP`s white share dropped from 58% to 51%, or 7 points down. (Those numbers have changed slightly since my VDARE blog item of last night.) Since the Hispanic vote follows the white vote up and down
, just about 20 points shifted toward the Democrats
(it`s not a swing vote, it`s a vote that goes with the flow of the white vote), the relative loss for the GOP among Hispanics versus the last midterm was 2 percentage points, which it would be reasonable to attribute to the Fence. Multiply that 2 percentage point relative loss by the approximate 6 percent share of the vote that Hispanics made up in this electorate, and you`ve got an itsy-bitsy number: 0.12%.
In most of your big Hispanic states, California, Texas, Florida, New York, there weren`t too many close major races. Schwarzenegger lost the Hispanic vote almost 2 to 1, but still won overall
in a near landslide.