The Southern Path For Bolsonaro Away From Declining Brazil
Print Friendly and PDF

The election in Brazil is over and it appears that former leftist president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has defeated President Jair Bolsonaro [Brazil Election Live Results, Bloomberg, October 30, 2022]. As of this writing Bolsonaro has not conceded defeat. The contest was much closer than what polls suggested. 

Admittedly anecdotal reports suggest the lumpenproletariat and gangs are celebrating the victory of the Marxists. 

One of the key problems is that Bolsonaro focused on simply competently governing. Democracy doesn’t work like that. Democracy is above all a patronage system. Brazil is so profoundly broken that it needed fundamental change, perhaps even restoring the Empire to give it a higher structure. Bolsonaro did not do these things. He also failed to break the courts, which essentially handed Lula the victory. 

Can't load tweet Sorry, that page does not exist

While the State Department, the Biden Administration, and Regime Media insist over and over again that there is no voter fraud in Brazil, they insist so much that I’ve begun to doubt. 

It’s impossible to know if Bolsonaro will win in the end. He will almost surely advance to a run-off, but he would thereafter face very serious challenges. Brazilian law apportions media coverage to heavily favor incumbents. His biggest obstacle, however, is voter fraud. Since voting is mandatory and therefore nearly universal, voter fraud is very common in Brazil on many levels. The impoverished north and northeast of the country, which are the base of the Brazilian establishment, will heavily favor Bolsonaro’s rival. Due to the backward infrastructure, these areas are also where voter fraud can be carried out most easily. In 2004, I myself was present at a meeting where the owner of a bakery chain was selling several thousand votes to a candidate for state congress. Bolsonaro is a one-man show and would have few allies in congress in the event of massive voter fraud; or, if he wins, once he is president.

[Jair Bolsonaro and the Populist Crisis In Brazilby Costin Alamariu, Palladium, October 9, 2018]

Southern Brazil is whiter, more prosperous, and more functional than the hellscape that is the northeast. There is also a lingering secession movement there, one that is surely to pick up steam.

There is no reason that a potentially prosperous and beautiful state must be held hostage to criminal gangs and delinquents. If Bolsonaro can’t save his regime, perhaps he should take charge of the slumbering secession movement in Southern Brazil. It has the potential to be a beacon of civilization in an area seemingly doomed to eternal chaos and stagnation. And there comes a point when the cancer is so deep within a state that parts must be cut away for that which is essential to survive. 

Print Friendly and PDF