Romney Keeps Narrow Lead, Mediocre White Share—But Only 45%(!) in CA
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The RealClearPolitics Presidential Poll average now (October 11) shows Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama by just 0.7%. But the Rasmussen Reports 3-day Tracking Poll, usually more favorable to Romney but always a wild card, now shows Romney down one point, 47-48. The unreported news, available only to Rasmussen's premium Platinum subscribers, is that it estimates Romney's white share is still just 55%—firmly stuck in the losing McCain range.

Other recent national polls:

  • Monmouth/ Survey USA/ Braun shows Romney ahead 47-46. The crosstabs show Romney's white share at a (relatively high) 58%.
  • Fox News poll, released October 10, shows Romney ahead of Obama 46-45. Romney's white share: 56%.
  • IBD/ TIPP Poll, released October 11, showed Romney ahead of Obama 46.9%-45.7%. Romney's white share: 56%.

Classic Hispanic Hype: Among Latinos, Romney fares worse than McCain and Bush: poll, by Susan Heavey, Oct. 11, 2012. You have to read the underlying Pew poll carefully to find that Hispanics are only 11% of the electorate and are less likely to vote, so minor fluctuations in Romney's Hispanic share are nugatory. 

State coda: KPIX CBS-5 in San Francisco released a tracking poll on October 10: CBS 5 Poll: Romney Gains 8 Points On Faltering Obama In California. Romney was still behind 39-53.

But the real news was the white share in California, which (as usual) you have to go into the crosstabs to get: Romney and Obama are exactly even 45-45.

As has said repeatedly, the GOP's problem in California is not the much-hyped Hispanics but whites. No recent GOP statewide candidate in California has won the white vote—in 2008, John McCain got only 46%.

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