Regardless of religion, I don't think any human heart could be untouched by the passing of the Pope. But there is a ruthless reality in the traditional English announcement: the King is dead! Long live the King!  Roger McCaffrey says he still stands by the analysis he gave us two years ago. He puts the odds at a Third World Pope, perhaps Arinze of Nigeria, at 20 percent, although cautioning that anything can happen.  He thinks that the most likely outcome is an Italian, perhaps Scola of Venice or Bertone of Genoa. A dark horse: Ratzinger of Bavaria (and the Vatican bureaucracy).

Any Third Worlder would presumably be bad on immigration. By contrast, the Italians are worried. But the terrible truth is that, regardless of his achievements in an era that is now closed, it's hard to see how the next Pope could be worse than John Paul II.