Arizona Sen. John McCain, once the early favorite to win the nomination, reported raising a disappointing $11.2 million in the second quarter with only $2 million cash on hand – $400,000 less than Paul. His campaign said his support of immigration reform legislation hurt his fundraising ability.
The fact that of the 3-4 major GOP candidates, none of them support anything close to the the kinds of immigration policies Americans say they want says a lot about how that party is really run. Right now, I expect Paul may win Iowa, New Hampshire or even both of those contests.
The GOP is also clearly losing the money contest-which is a traditional GOP strength. Of course who would have thought before H-1b expansion, the GOP would loose college educated, white males-their traditional core base?
The question now: who in the GOP will keep fighting even if they are in what appears a hopeless situation? Paul has loyal supporters who are used to fighting battles that are hard to win.
I expect that the eventual nominee will be Fred Thompson—and Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani will take the VP slot. However, if that campaign is simply an embarrassment, the Paul forces will gain significant strength in 2012.