On the eve of the campaign's last debate, Mitt Romney continues to get slightly better polls than Barack Obama, although mostly still within the margin of error. But, while it looked yesterday that white voters might be at last tipping to him decisively, today his white share appears to be still stuck at the top end of GOP Presidential candidates' mediocre post-Reagan white share range.
That might not be enough. Remember, John McCain lost with a 55% white share in 2008—but the Congressional GOP got 60% in 2010, which should have been Romney's starting point. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down).
Irritatingly, Gallup again did not publish its racial breakdown. But on Oct. 16, it showed Romney getting a record 61% white share, which translated into a four-point national lead over Obama. Presumably, Gallup thinks Romney's white share is still at least in that range.
The crosstabs reveal Romney's white share: 57%, a nineteen-point lead over Obama.
As always with this poll, the racial breakdown is buried under a ton of extraneous detail. Romney's white share (p. 93): 57%, an eighteen-point lead over Obama.
Rasmussen's Premium Platinum subscribers learn that Romney's white share is down two points, to 57%, a nineteen-point lead over Obama.
IBD/TIPP's estimate of Romney's white share: a very mediocre 53%—up from an appalling 51% yesterday.
Romney's continuing problem with whites in the North is illustrated by two recent Rasmussen state polls: in Iowa (Oct 21), Romney and Obama are tied 48-48—and Romney's white share is a disgraceful 50%, only four points ahead of Obama.
In contrast, in Colorado (Oct. 22), Romney has drawn ahead to 50-46—and his white share is 59%, 22 points ahead of Obama.