The RealClearPolitics Presidential Poll average now (October 11) shows Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama by just 0.7%. But the Rasmussen Reports 3-day Tracking Poll, usually more favorable to Romney but always a wild card, now shows Romney down one point, 47-48. The unreported news, available only to Rasmussen`s premium Platinum subscribers, is that it estimates Romney`s white share is still just 55%—firmly stuck in the losing McCain range.
Other recent national polls:
Classic Hispanic Hype: Among Latinos, Romney fares worse than McCain and Bush: poll, by Susan Heavey, Oct. 11, 2012. You have to read the underlying Pew poll carefully to find that Hispanics are only 11% of the electorate and are less likely to vote, so minor fluctuations in Romney`s Hispanic share are nugatory.
State coda: KPIX CBS-5 in San Francisco released a tracking poll on October 10: CBS 5 Poll: Romney Gains 8 Points On Faltering Obama In California. Romney was still behind 39-53.
But the real news was the white share in California, which (as usual) you have to go into the crosstabs to get: Romney and Obama are exactly even 45-45.
As VDARE.com has said repeatedly, the GOP`s problem in California is not the much-hyped Hispanics but whites. No recent GOP statewide candidate in California has won the white vote—in 2008, John McCain got only 46%.