The things that we most like to argue about are those that are most inherently arguable ...
As you may have noticed by now, Iâ€™m like that: clueless about most subjects that most people are most desperate to discuss. Who will win the Super Bowl? Will the stock market go up or down tomorrow? Will the health bill pass? Which party will win the next election?
Donâ€™t ask me.
Those questions concern competitive institutions that are structured in ways that make their outcomes hard to foresee â€¦ and therefore captivating.
Paradoxically, that means that my being profoundly ignorant about these concerns wouldnâ€™t keep me from making quick predictions that would be almost as accurate as if I did nothing else but study the subject.
Who will win the Super Bowl? Well, two minutes on Google leads me to a betting site that says the New Orleans Saints are +360, while the Indianapolis Colts are +385. (I donâ€™t even know what those numbers are supposed to mean.) Hereâ€™s another site that has the Colts at 3:1 and the Saints at 4:1, which at least I understand.
So, there you have my fearless forecast: the Saints will meet the Colts in the 2010 Super Bowl, and one of them will win.
You heard it here first.