[T]here’s also reason to believe that deep changes in Georgia’s demographics are boosting her support and could turn Georgia purple soon, if not this November.One of the main problems with Conservatism Inc. as it stands is its refusal to deal with these demographic realities. If you are passionately committed to the idea America is defined by ideology or vaguely defined "principles," it's practically forbidden to suggest changing the demographic makeup of the electorate will change the political result. After all, we can just "educate" the new population to believe what we believe? But this does not fit the facts on the ground. More than anything else, it's the inability of the Beltway Right to even engage with this problem, let alone propose solutions, that has led to the rise of the Alternative Right.
The changes that have taken place in Georgia mirror the kinds of changes that have put into play other formerly solid Republican states in the South, like Virginia and North Carolina. As with these states, Georgia’ population has been growing and diversifying. In 2000, roughly 63 percent of Georgians were white. Today, an estimated 54 percent are, the result of a Latino population that has grown from roughly 5 percent to more than 9 percent, a black population that has grown from 29 percent to 31 percent, and an Asian population that has grown from roughly 2 percent to 4 percent. These numbers are driven, as is also the case in the new swing states, by a changing economy. Urban centers like Atlanta and the industries based in them like tech and health care are growing, which is driving migration to Georgia not just from abroad, but also from elsewhere in the country. According to the Census Bureau, Georgia was one of the top 10 destinations for Americans moving to another state between 2010 and 2015.
[Why Georgia Is Turning Purple, by Osita Nwanevu, Slate, August 10, 2016]
For example, The Resurgent, a conservative site which is heavily biased against Trump, blames the close polls in Georgia on Trump.
States like Georgia (and Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia) are no longer safe havens for the GOP. While Trump might win the White House through the annihilation of Clinton by Russian hacktivists and political operatives, the outlook for the down ballot for the GOP is truly awful.But Donald Trump isn't the reason these states aren't "safe havens" for the GOP. The Republicans have not won Virginia since 2004. It's demographics behind this transformation.
Thanks, Donald. Good show.
[A Red State No More: Georgia Republicans Suffer Buyer's Remorse With Trump, by Steve Berman, The Resurgent, July 25, 2016]
Erick Erickson, to his credit, recognizes demographics are behind what's happening in Georgia and takes a longer view than just the 2016 election cycle. But even he does not mention the dreaded word "immigration" in his analysis. He writes the Democrats' may be overstating the number of minority voters they are registering. But of course this is an admission that minority voters are the key to Democratic victory.
So here we are in Georgia and Hillary Clinton is polling ahead of Donald Trump in Georgia in August. It is the familiar pattern. But, we should take note of one thing. The Democrats, who do far more accurate internal polling, believe their battleground really is expanding to Georgia and Arizona...Donald Trump is down in the polls. But Trump is not responsible for the demographic realities which have brought the conservative movement and the Republican Party to this point. Trump is a last, desperate effort to try to change these realities before it is too late. No matter what happens in November, the American conservative movement needs to either deal with the objective situation or die.
But, and this is important, the national Democrats should not count on Stacey Abrams, the Democrats’ leader in the Georgia State House. She’s a huckster when it comes to voter registration. There are a number of prominent state Democrats waving red flags to the national Democrats not to get suckered by Abrams’ efforts. She keeps getting money, allegedly from Soros most recently, to register voters. But all she’s gotten is investigated.
The New Georgia Project announced Monday that is has registered 70,000 new minority voters this year, predominantly African Americans, but also Latinos and Asians. That’s on top of work the group has been doing since the 2012 cycle, where increased registration has helped Georgia Democrats make gains in state government. Democrats now have 61 seats in the Georgia House, far behind Republicans, who control 116 seats.
Take that with a grain of salt. Similar claims have been made by Abrams’ group before.
[The Democrats' Battlefield is Expanding. The GOP's Is Not, The Resurgent, August 9, 2016]