Smith college economist Jim Miller observes:
The biggest prediction failure was of the financial markets. A market crash in early Feb would have been a wake up call to the world. We pay $$$ to our best and brightest to work in finance, and prediction is a huge part of their job. They let us down.— James Miller (@JimDMiller) March 22, 2020
I think it was only a month ago that the stock market first dropped sharply, and that was also in part due to the brief Bernie Boom.
I sort of think that part of the problem was that the main throughlines of Trump Era news has been too interesting day to day for many people to want to change the subject to some new topic. For example, the Trump impeachment trial in the Senate didn’t end until February 12.
I’m less interested in partisan bickering than most, but still, I only managed to blog only once about coronavirus in January. Sorry about that.