For example, the propensity toward interracial marriage among people under 35 way back in 1980 was already 72% as great as it is today.
Why Is Interracial Marriage on the Rise?In other other words, controlling for demographics, the propensity toward interracial marriage (counting Hispanics as a race) was 72% as great in 1980 as it is today. In other words, there was already quite a lot of propensity toward interracial marriage in 1980, 36 years ago. What has changed most since 1980 is not social attitudes but numbers.
By Dan Kopf · 11,234 views · More stats …
So what would America’s intermarriage rate look like if the country had not become more diverse? In the chart [above], the blue trend line is our estimate of the rate of intermarriage if the demographics of the young married population had not changed since 1980 – the orange line shows the actual increase.
While there is still an increase, it is not even close to what we saw in the first chart.
Our “no-demographic change” estimate suggests that intermarriage would have only risen to 6.7% if demographics had not changed – a 1.9% increase, dramatically smaller than the 8.6% increase actually observed.
In other words, changing beliefs is responsible for only a fraction of the increasing intermarriage rate.