Gallup: Romney's White Share At 61%!—But Immigration Could Puncture That In Tonight's Debate
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The Oct. 16 RealClearPolitics Average of polls shows Mitt Romney opening an infinitesimal 47.4-47.0 lead over Barack Obama. Both were tied at 47.3% yesterday.

Three new polls seem to be responsible for the change:

  • Today's Gallup tracking poll (Oct.16) shows Romney ahead of Obama 50-46 among likely voters.

On this occasion, Gallup has made its racial breakdown available: Romney leads Obama 61%-39 among non-Hispanic whites.

This is about Romney's best white share result yet, comparing with the 60% white share that Congressional Republicans got in 2010 and well ahead of McCain's 56% in 2010. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down). And it results in one of Romney's largest recorded overall leads.

  • Today's Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking poll (Oct. 16) shows Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 49-47. (Interestingly, two percent of voters prefer some other candidate).

Rasmussen's Premium Platinum subscribers learn that Romney's white share has dropped a point, to 57%.

  • IBD/TIPP for October 16 shows Romney trailing Obama 45.7-47.3. This compares to 46-46.7 on October 14.

Typical of the MSM, IBD/TIPP attributes Romney's weakening to losses among independents and (less typically) men and self-identified "conservatives." But in fact IBD/TIPP shows Romney's white share sharply down, at 53%, compared to 58% on October 10, when Romney led overall by 5 points.

Fox News Latino speculates Presidential Debate: In Round Two, Will Immigration and Latin America Come Up? (by Elizabeth Llorente, Oct. 16 2012). This would be a shrewd move by Obama, since Romney has shown every sign of wanting to pander on this issue, which would in turn alienate his only real hope: conservative white patriots.

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