Back in March, in Democrat Asks: Where Did Our White Voters Go? I considered an insightful article by Lee Drutman (who unsurprisingly has subsequently ceased to work at the Progressive Policy Institute). Drutman pointed out of the steep decline in Democratic identification nationwide:
...the only statistically significant predictor of the decline in democratic partisan affiliation advantage is the percentage of white people in the state. Surprisingly, the state economy (at least as measured by unemployment rate or change in unemployment rate) doesn't seem to matter...
This re-emphasizes the problems that Democrats seem to be having with white voters. (Democrats have not enjoyed parity with Republicans among white voters in 20 years, but 2010 was especially bad, with white voters breaking 62-to-38 for Republicans in the mid-term elections.)
The 2012 election is liable to be the most racially polarized in American history. President Obama has made this inevitable. I believe this explains the widely reported pessimism and defeatism amongst prospective GOP nominees. It is not that they don't think Obama can be defeated. It is that they know the hatred and rage such a victory will generate in the MSM and the Inside-the-Beltway establishment will make the next President's life very stressful. Think Watergate!
Over at View From The Right, Larry Auster and some friends have now had a characteristically luminous discussion on this very point: IS ANY REPUBLICAN READY FOR THE CONSEQUENCES OF HAVING DEFEATED THE BLACK MESSIAH? June 03, 2011
In it "James P." wrote
...rage, hate, and insanity...will emerge full-force against the candidate who takes on Obama, and will be doubled if he wins. The Republican candidate will have to have a very strong character to withstand that hate and to govern effectively. Does Romney want to win badly enough to go down in history as "the man who defeated the First Black President"? If he wins, will Romney spend his entire time trying to appease liberal rage by governing as a liberal...
This of course is exactly what happened with Nixon - who gave the nation Affirmative Action in his first term!. (Reagan resisted - and was swamped with efforts to jail his aides.)
Larry Auster concurred:
Would any of them have the fortitude to withstand the hate you are talking about?
And Nile McCoy added:
...whoever defeats Obama, but especially the more conservative the nominee, severe animus will be directed at him or her. It will be exceptionally severe if there is a perceived mandate to overturn Obamacare...
I am convinced this is the reason the GOP prospects are flinching, and seem so interested gaining Treason Lobby approval. Prognosis for a presidency of any of this crew after such a poor start: Ghastly.
Will the GOP candidate have the steel to withstand this rage? It is the Acid Test.
Memo to Senator DeMint...