This week, Ron Paul raised $4.2 Million during a Guy Fawkes fund raising event. There are some other major fundraising events in the works-and the political markets are showing Paul as the candidate most likely after Romney and Giuliani to get the GOP nomination.
Now, I expect that George Bush doesn`t like the prospect of an anti-war Libertarian taking over his party. Could this happen? Well, there are noises of some other major Ron Paul fund raising events prior to New Hampshire and Iowa.
Now, the "conventional wisdom " is that Paul can`t win because he doesn`t do well in polls. The problem with those polls is that they don`t ask what people might think of candidates if they knew what their stands actually were. The point of the fundamental corruption and intellectual dishonesty of corporate media in that respect is described by Jim Bowery in this article,The Real Reason Ron Paul Supporters Hate the Old Media So Much.
One fun link in that article points to a candidate evaluation program that suggests which candidates most closely match a specific voter (and immigration plays a prominent role in that program`s selection). As Bowery points out, national media could conduct scientific polls that would suggest what candidates might do well if they obtained funding—and would help explain what the public really wants.
Sadly, in the current climate, any candidate with good corporate media support is most likely scum-and increasingly the public is developing a sense of that. I truly doubt that Paul can get the GOP nomination. However, I think that just Paul`s presence in the major GOP debates will be utterly humiliating to Bush. If Paul does well, that could force Giuliani and Romney to join forces to get the nomination. If a Giuliani/Romney ticket does poorly in 2008, Paul may well be in a major position of authority in 2008. I suspect Paul will be too old to run again in 2012-but some major Republican will get the nomination, and I expect they`d have views closer to Paul than Bush, Giuliani or Romney if both of them are utterly discredited.
Paul has a long way to go to really understand the immigration issue. I`m honestly afraid of how his policies might accelerate concentration of wealth. Still, of the candidates with any realistic chance of getting the nomination, Paul has the most realistic stand on immigration-is rather offensive to the mainstream Republican leadership that has promoted mass immigration.