Over at Investors Business Daily, Douglas Mackinnon has published a good discussion of the damage done to the John McCain’s candidacy in 2008 by low turnout: Conservatives Mustn`t Let Media Pick The Candidate September 26, 2011
"…exponentially more conservatives and Americans who cherish our vanishing traditional values could not stand him. So much so, they simply declined to vote.
That fact is one of the most purposefully underreported or flat-out ignored reasons why Mr. Obama won the White House in 2008.
Well over 2 million fewer people voted for the GOP ticket in 2008 compared to 2004. Did some of those votes go to Mr. Obama? For sure. Did many just stay home? Absolutely.
Again, a critically important fact when you stop to realize that Mr. Obama won North Carolina by only 14,000 votes. That he won Indiana by only 28,000 votes. Or that he won Florida by only 236,000 out of well over 8 million cast."
Unfortunately Mackinnon then loses touch with reality and tries to argue Rick Perry is better candidate than Romney to avoid this disaster.
Since last week’s debate there has been a plethora of stories on how much Perry’s arrogant open-borderism has annoyed the base, no more telling than Why Immigration Is Hurting Perry By Adam Serwer Mother Jones Mon Sep. 26 2011
"According to a forthcoming study from Harvard`s Theda Skocpol and two of her graduate students, Vanessa Williamson and John Coggin, immigration is among the most important issues for self-identified "Tea Party" Republicans. Why? Because it crystallizes their attitude towards "big government"…
The Texas governor is on the wrong side on one of the defining ideological issues of the modern conservative movement…Perry…with his remarks about those who disagree with him "not having a heart," gives Republican primary voters the sneaking suspicion that his moderation on the issue is genuine."
(I commend 24Ahead.com’s comment on the story.)
As matters stand it is Perry who has the best chance of triggering Mackinnon’s rightly-feared low GOP turnout.