Hispanics turning back to Democrats for 2008 By Susan Page, USA TODAY SAN ANTONIO â€” Like no Republican before him, George W. Bush drew Hispanics to the GOP. In the 2004 election, at least 40% of the voters in the nation's largest and fastest-growing minority group backed Bush, double the share of Hispanics who had supported Republican Bob Dole eight years earlier. But the inroads Bush made are vanishing.
The chief beneficiary for 2008 so far is Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton.
A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll indicates that Hispanics, by nearly 3 to 1, say they're Democrats or lean that way. Of those, 59% support the New York senator over her presidential rivals â€” her strongest showing among any major demographic group and a huge potential asset for early contests in Nevada, Florida, California and other states with large Hispanic populations.
40 percent, or even the imaginary 44 percent of the vote that various Hispanic vote enthusiasts, (including National Review) thought Bush had achieve, is still a landslide the other way.
USA Today said much the same thing, with slightly different numbers, at the time of the 2006 election that cost the Republicans the House.
Republicans lose ground among Hispanic voters - USATODAY.com
By Kathy Kiely, USA TODAY, November 9, 2006
WASHINGTON â€” Republican gains among Hispanic voters evaporated in Tuesday's election, and some party leaders are blaming harsh rhetoric on immigration for the reversal. Cutting into the Democrats' traditional advantage among Hispanic voters was a key to both of President Bush's election victories. In 2004, when the president was at the top of the ticket, 44% of Hispanics surveyed after they cast their ballots said they voted Republican.
This year, the figure dropped to 29%.
In Alien Nation, Peter Brimelow wrote that "Race is destiny in American politics."[p 264, p . 277 of the PDF version.] What that means is that minority groups tend to vote as blocs, while the majority tends to be divided on principles. And the bloc voting tends to go Democratic.
It was folly for GOP strategists to think otherwise.