Unaffordable Family Formation in England
April 13, 2017, 09:02 AM
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From The Telegraph:

Soaring house prices reduce number of babies born in England

by Sarah Knapton, science editor

12 APRIL 2017 • 4:19PM

Soaring house prices are reducing the number of babies born in England because fewer people can afford their own home and so delay starting a family, a new study suggests.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development found that for every 10 per cent increases in house prices, the birth rate falls by 1.3 per cent.

The trend is reversed for people who own their own home, with a 10 per cent house price rise sparking a rise in the number of births by 2.8 per cent. However among renters, the same increase causes a birth rate decline of 4.9 per cent. …

“This may be because the increased wealth of homeowners allows them to start a family, while private renters postpone having kids until they are on the property ladder,” said researcher Dr Cevat Giray Aksoy, who presented the findings at The Royal Economic Society’s annual conference in Bristol.

“Couples put off having children because they aren’t able to afford suitable accommodation.

“These findings support the notion that housing costs exert downward pressure on the fertility outcome of young adults and that there is a connection between getting on the property ladder and building a family.”

According to the Land Registry data, average house prices in England have increased by nearly 290 per cent between 1995 and 2016 – from £67,000 to £232,000 – with some counties experiencing a more than 900 per cent rise in house prices.

So 290% divided by 10 times 1.3% is 37.7%.
The study suggest that young people between 20 and 29 are disproportionately affected by property prices, which could explain why the average age at which mothers have their first child has been gradually creeping up, and is now at 30 years old. Homeowners aged 30 to 44 tend to benefit from the growing wealth in their properties. …
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