is the world`s major prediction market. Investors can buy futures in items like US presidential elections-and now, the chance of a major amnesty
Current betting places the odds of an amnesty at around 16% by the end of 2010. I`d guess that means that the chance of such an amnesty by the end of Obama`s first term are less than 35%.
Basically this says that Amnesty is not a core issue for Democrats like health care reform. What we are about to see isn`t going to be a major push. All Democrats need to do is enough that they don`t loose Hispanic voters to the GOP-and not such much that they loose what working class white voters still vote Democrat.
I wonder how the outcome of the 2012 midterm elections will affect this issue the next few years? What I suspect is that we will see more Democrats that are serious about winning elections-and the only way they can win elections is by following the lead of folks like Peter DeFazio of Oregon
-and demonstrating some moderation on immigration issue. F