Political Markets Suggest Low Chance of Major Amnesty
April 20, 2010, 03:00 PM
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Intrade is the world's major prediction market. Investors can buy futures in items like US presidential elections-and now, the chance of a major amnesty.

Current betting places the odds of an amnesty at around 16% by the end of 2010. I'd guess that means that the chance of such an amnesty by the end of Obama's first term are less than 35%.

Basically this says that Amnesty is not a core issue for Democrats like health care reform. What we are about to see isn't going to be a major push. All Democrats need to do is enough that they don't loose Hispanic voters to the GOP-and not such much that they loose what working class white voters still vote Democrat.

I wonder how the outcome of the 2012 midterm elections will affect this issue the next few years? What I suspect is that we will see more Democrats that are serious about winning elections-and the only way they can win elections is by following the lead of folks like Peter DeFazio of Oregon-and demonstrating some moderation on immigration issue. F