For quite a few years now, VDARE has been providing the most calm and sophisticated analysis of the electoral impact of immigration. Our position has been that immigration poses a massive problem for the GOP in the long run, but the long run hasn`t arrived quite yet, so there`s still time to do something about it. We`ve also speculated that Karl Rove`s vaunted Hispanic outreach campaign is largely a smokescreen to distract the media from the Strategy that Dare Not Speak Its Name:
Now, the liberal Pew Hispanic Center has confirmed much of what we`ve been saying for years. Back in May, I reported
, based on Census Bureau survey data:
"Whites provided almost ten times as many incremental Bush votes as the next most important ethnic contributor to his growth, Hispanics, at 0.97 million extra votes."
In late June, the Pew Hispanic Center`s new report on "Hispanics and the 2004 Election"
"Hispanics accounted for half of the population growth in the United States between the elections of 2000 and 2004 but only one-tenth of the increase in the total votes cast, according to a Pew Hispanic Center analysis of new data from the U.S. Census Bureau."
Pew`s analysis makes the important point that:
"The gap between the size of the Latino adult population and the number of Hispanic voters has been growing since at least 1972 and is likely to continue growing given current trends… A total of four people had to be added to the Hispanic population to generate each one of those additional votes."
In other words, although the U.S. is adding over 1.4 million Hispanics per year, the GOP still has a window of opportunity to save itself by cutting down on immigration.
You may also recall that I offered to bet
Michael Barone, who had claimed in U.S. News & World Report
that Hispanics might account for nine percent of the vote in 2004,
$1,000 that the actual number would be closer to my forecast of 6.1 percent.
Barone prudently did not take me up on this bet. According to Pew: "In November, 2004, Hispanics accounted for 6.0% of all votes cast…"
VDARE.com also took the lead last November in questioning the exit poll report that Bush won 44 percent of the Latino vote. The Pew Hispanic Center report concurs in our skepticism:
"An analysis of the 2004 exit poll data in conjunction with this new CPS data suggests that Bush’s share of the Hispanic vote last year was probably closer to 40 percent than to the 44 percent widely reported last year by news organizations that had relied on national exit poll data."