Steve Sailer noted that Obama may be gearing up for an immigration fight
early in his term. I wouldn`t assume this is because he expects—or wants—to win such a fight. Obama assembled a coalition with contradictory agendas.
Many of his Hispanic supporters want an amnesty regardless of what it does to other Americans.
He also has a lot of supporters who expect an Obama administration to do something other than continue the last three decades of pandering to the rich. All Obama has to do to keep his Hispanic supporters is show he`s done a little more than Bush et al
did for them—which consisted of empty promises and sub-prime mortgages that blew up on them.
Obama in 2012 will be running either with the first popular vote
or with an electoral college shaped more by recent Hispanic immigration reflected in the 2010 census. Even if Obama got an amnesty for all 12 million illegal aliens, they won`t become eligible to vote fast enough to do him any good in 2012.
What might help Obama electorally in 2012:
- Accelerate grants of citizenship. According to DHS, In 2007, there were 12.8 million legal permanent residents—8.2 million were eligible for naturalization. From 1980-2006 there were of 284,000 naturalizations each year. That suggests a lot of room to pack the voting base.
Obama might even temporarily reduce the presence of illegal aliens by cracking down on illegal employers or offering repatriation assistance to recent illegal immigrants who want to go home. Such a move would avoid a fight over amnesty—and might actually improve conditions for illegal aliens now in the US.
Requirements for naturalization have been way too loose in recent decades. Further loosening requirements will create long term problems—but those problems won`t be apparent until after Obama is out of office. Above all, we can count on Obama to do whatever he thinks will get him re-elected in 2012.