July Jobs: American Worker Displacement Resumes
August 04, 2007, 03:16 AM
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Nonfarm payrolls grew by a lower-than-expected 92,000 in July, the least seen since February. And the nation's unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, up from 4.5% in June and the highest reading since January, the Labor Department reported.

The hint of recession did not help an already beleaguered stock market.

It’s a good thing Wall Street doesn’t focus on the �other� employment survey. The Household Survey found that employment declined in July, with non-Hispanics bearing the entire loss—and then some. Here are the details:

  • Total employment fell by 30,000, or by 0.02 percent
  • Hispanic employment rose by 140,000, or by 0.7 percent
  • Non-Hispanic employment fell by 170,000, or by 0.1 percent

Not since December has Hispanic job growth been as robust. In fact, during May and June Hispanic employment growth lagged that of non-Hispanics—a trend undoubtedly related to the construction industry’s depression.

Obviously Hispanic workers are finding jobs outside of construction. Where, we don’t know: the Household survey identifies race and ethnicity, but not the employment sector of respondents. Illegal alien workers are more likely to be counted in the Household Survey, which is why we believe it’s a more accurate measure of overall job creation than the payroll survey.

July’s Hispanic job pop pushed VDARE.COM’s American Worker Displacement Index (VDAWDI) up to the record 122.0 first reached in April. In June VDAWDI was 121.0

VDAWDI Graph

The black line tracks Hispanic job growth, red is non-Hispanic, and yellow—the VDAWDI index—the ratio of Hispanic to non-Hispanic job creation. All the lines start at 100.0 in January 2001 (the first month of the Bush Administration), and reflect job growth since that time.

Month to month anomalies cannot obscure the big picture: From January 2001 through July 2007 Hispanic employment rose 4.213 million, or by 26.1 percent, while non-Hispanic employment rose 4.121 million, a 3.4 percent gain.

In other words, during the Bush years Hispanic employment—a good proxy for immigrant employment—has increased about eight-times faster than non-Hispanic employment.