Immigration and the 2012 Election
Print Friendly and PDF
According to betters at five presidential candidates have more than a 5% chance of getting the GOP nomination.
Mitt Romney 33.1%
Rick Perry 18%
Tim Pawlenty 12%
Jon Huntsman 11.2%
Michele Bachman 7.1%
The chance of any other candidate getting the GOP nomination is under 20% according to this market.

Mormons Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman are following the lead of the LDS leadership rather than the rank and file. All the other candidates are at least trying to talk tough on immigration restriction.

They all tend to see immigration problems as purely involving illegal immigration, though—and are completely cowardly when it comes to going up against corporate H-1b employers.

We've seen GOP candidates like Tancredo and Buchanan who were trying to be realistic on immigration issues win a few primaries in recent decades.

However, we haven't seen this kind of tough talk coming out of candidates with this kind of serious chance at getting a major party nomination. I don't think any of the current crop have put the kind of serious thought into immigration policy that Tancredo and Buchanan did-but what it shows is the immigration issue is starting to go mainstream. Sooner or later GOP candidates will simply have to start to really address immigration on the campaign trail—and will face serious problems if they don't deliver something real once elected. Immigration restriction is literally the only popular issue the GOP has-and in a troubled economy, it is an issue they must focus on to avoid electoral humiliation.

Print Friendly and PDF