How Long to Shut Down? Let's Procrastinate on Making That Decision
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When should we shut down? As soon as possible.

When should we decide when to open up again? As late as possible.

Let’s procrastinate in making that decision to reopen.

It might turn out to be a good idea to reopen on Easter (April 12). (It probably won’t, but it might.) When would be the right time to make that decision? Oh, about 11:59 PM on Holy Saturday. If we have really turned the corner by Easter, well, ring out the church bells to announce our victory over the foe. But if the battle is still ongoing, let’s postpone declaring victory until it's for real.

Right now we are flying fairly blind. But each day, the human race is learning more and more about our adversary. Probably more new knowledge about one subject is being uncovered daily than at any other point in human history. So let’s not short-circuit the learning process by deciding now when lockdown will be over. Let’s make the decision not 2.5 weeks before Easter, but at the last possible moment when we will know vastly more than we do right now.

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