Exit Polls
November 05, 2008, 02:52 PM
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Here`s the national exit poll via CNN (in all these, first column Obama, second McCain, third Misc.)

By the way, somebody should make a copy of it as it stands now because in a few hours CNN will come along and change all the exit poll splits to make them reflect the actual vote splits.

Vote by Race
———————Obama——McCain——-Other
White (75%)
43%
55%
2%
African-American (13%)
96%
4%
N/A
Latino (8%)
67%
31%
2%
Asian (2%)
63%
33%
4%
Other (3%)
66%
31%
3%
A Republican can`t win with just 55% of the white vote. Bush got 58% in 2004 and won, but only 54% and lost the popular vote in 2000. And the bar keeps inching up every four years.

And here`s the famous Gender Gap, which CNN lists first out of all demographic measures:

Vote by Sex ———————Obama——McCain——-Other
Male (47%)
49%
49%
2%
Female (53%)
55%
43%
2%
And here`s the not so famous Marriage Gap:
Vote by Marital Status
———————Obama——McCain——-Other
Married (66%)
46%
52%
2%
Unmarried (34%)
65%
33%
2%
So, Obama did only six points better among women than among men, but he did 19 points better among singles than among marrieds.

In contrast, in 2004`s exit poll, Kerry did 7 points better among women and 17 points better among singles.

Thumbing through the demographics casually, nothing looks terribly surprising, just a broad shift to the left versus 2004, just as 2004 saw a widespread shift to the right versus 2000. Of course, some of the black vote breakdowns by state are pretty funny, with North Korean-like 98-2 ratios.

For example, here`s New York:

Vote by Race
———————Obama——McCain——-Other
White (71%)
52%
46%
2%
African-American (17%)
100%
0%
N/A
Take that, Enver Hoxha!