Exit Polls
November 05, 2008, 02:52 PM
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Here's the national exit poll via CNN (in all these, first column Obama, second McCain, third Misc.)

By the way, somebody should make a copy of it as it stands now because in a few hours CNN will come along and change all the exit poll splits to make them reflect the actual vote splits.

Vote by Race
———————Obama——McCain——-Other
White (75%)
43%
55%
2%
African-American (13%)
96%
4%
N/A
Latino (8%)
67%
31%
2%
Asian (2%)
63%
33%
4%
Other (3%)
66%
31%
3%
A Republican can't win with just 55% of the white vote. Bush got 58% in 2004 and won, but only 54% and lost the popular vote in 2000. And the bar keeps inching up every four years.

And here's the famous Gender Gap, which CNN lists first out of all demographic measures:

Vote by Sex ———————Obama——McCain——-Other
Male (47%)
49%
49%
2%
Female (53%)
55%
43%
2%
And here's the not so famous Marriage Gap:
Vote by Marital Status
———————Obama——McCain——-Other
Married (66%)
46%
52%
2%
Unmarried (34%)
65%
33%
2%
So, Obama did only six points better among women than among men, but he did 19 points better among singles than among marrieds.

In contrast, in 2004's exit poll, Kerry did 7 points better among women and 17 points better among singles.

Thumbing through the demographics casually, nothing looks terribly surprising, just a broad shift to the left versus 2004, just as 2004 saw a widespread shift to the right versus 2000. Of course, some of the black vote breakdowns by state are pretty funny, with North Korean-like 98-2 ratios.

For example, here's New York:

Vote by Race
———————Obama——McCain——-Other
White (71%)
52%
46%
2%
African-American (17%)
100%
0%
N/A
Take that, Enver Hoxha!