The national exit poll on House voting from CNN (these numbers continue to change slightly as the evening wears on):
A few comments:
- The margin for error in exit polls is larger than the sample size would suggest because they have to pre-pick polling stations to send pollsters to.
- I don’t think the GOP’s 60% of the white vote is enough to win the White House in 2016.
- After all the huffing and puffing by the media over Ferguson, the GOP wound up doing fine among blacks, getting 10% of their vote.
- Despite all the predictions of doom for the GOP over not passing amnesty, the Hispanic vote turned out pretty ho-hum.
- The GOP’s strong showing among Asians is interesting.
By the way, if you feel like comparing the 2014 exit poll to the long-lost 2002 mid-term exit poll, here’s my 2003 analysis. The software crashed on election night 2002, so no exit polls were ever officially released. The next year, I bought the raw data for $95 and crunched it in Excel, and wrote it up.