Exit Poll Demographics
November 09, 2016, 04:49 AM
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From CNN, here are national exit polls of interesting demographics. I presume they’ve been fixed in post-production to no longer predict a Hillary win.

As of the wee hours of Wednesday morning, Trump holds a 0.2% lead in the national popular vote counting. But, judging from 2012, that’s likely to turn into a slight Clinton edge by the point California finishes its leisurely tally of mail-in ballots by sometime before Thanksgiving. The NYT data guys are predicting Hillary will end up with a 1.1% popular vote edge, and they’ve been quite accurate with their vote count predictions this evening.

Race:

Screenshot 2016-11-09 02.27.52

Keep in mind with exit polls that the % of the voters who fall in different demographic buckets are kind of contrived. The exit pollsters have to have a model of which precincts to send pollsters to based on their expectations of turnout.

Class/Education:

Screenshot 2016-11-09 02.32.51

Hillary did poorly among Independent men:

Screenshot 2016-11-09 02.34.06

Gender:

Screenshot 2016-11-09 02.35.26

Marriage:

Screenshot 2016-11-09 02.36.39

Marriage by sex:

Screenshot 2016-11-09 02.37.25

Religion:

Screenshot 2016-11-09 02.40.05

Immigrants:

Screenshot 2016-11-09 02.41.00

And here’s an NYT graph piece on trends in exit polls since 2004.

[Comment at Unz.com]