With the Republican Convention coming up, we'll be hearing more Hispanic Hype from journalists about how the GOP must appeal to the Hispanic vote (by betraying their country) or the party will vanish.
Most of these people have never actually counted the Hispanic vote, and the Center For Immigration studies is trying to help:
Projecting the 2012 Hispanic Vote
Shares Nationally and in Battleground States
By Steven A. Camarota, Karen Zeigler August 2012
Here's what they have to say about the Hispanic National Share of the Vote:
- We project that in November 2012 Hispanics will comprise 17.2 percent of the total U.S. population, 15 percent of adults, 11.2 percent of adult citizens, and 8.9 percent of actual voters.
- In 2012, non-Hispanic whites are expected to be 73.4 percent of the national vote and non-Hispanic blacks are expected to be 12.2 percent.
- To place the Hispanic share of the electorate into perspective, eight percentage points of the Hispanic vote nationally equals slightly less than one percentage point of the non-Hispanic white vote.
- The 8.9 percent Hispanic share of voters compares to veterans (12 percent of the electorate), those with family incomes above $100,000 (18 percent), seniors 65 and older (19 percent), married persons (60 percent), and those who live in owner-occupied housing (80 percent).
- In terms of voter turnout, we project that 52.7 percent (± 0.6) of eligible Hispanics will vote in the upcoming election, an increase from 49.9 percent in 2008 and a continuation of the past decade's long upward trend.
- The projected Hispanic voter participation rate of 52.7 percent compares to 66.1 percent for non-Hispanic whites and 65.2 percent for non-Hispanic blacks in 2008.
So, I repeat, don't panic, Republicans!