Brown Within Margin of Error in NH But Only Winning 50% of White Men
October 23, 2014, 09:28 AM
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Scott Brown's critical Senate run in New Hampshire is going down to the wire, with the former Massachusetts Senator within a couple points of the incumbent Democrat. Brown wants to talk about immigration but his opponent Jeanne Shaheen is trying to hold on by posing as a moderate, even to the extent of refusing to answer a simple question whether or not she voted for Barack Obama. [Audience Laughs at Shaheen for Ducking Question on Obama, Breitbart, October 21, 2014]

A new CNN/ORC International poll has Shaheen up ahead by two points among likely voters, though Shaheen has a larger lead among registered voters. However, as New Hampshire is an overwhelmingly white state (over 94% according to the Census Bureau), the nonwhite vote is not a major factor in the race and is listed as "N/A" in the polling data.

However, among white voters, there is a "gender gap" that is hurting Brown. Shaheen is winning 55% of white women, compared to Brown's 46%. That said, the real gap is coming from Brown's inability to win white men. The polling data shows that Br0wn is only winning 50% of white men to Shaheen's 44%. [CNN/ORC Poll, New Hampshire, October 23]

Throughout the country, there's no way the GOP can win an election—any election—without winning the white vote. But the GOP can't even contend if they don't take the white male vote. It's not too late for Brown—even if the election were held today, these poll results are within the margin of error. But don't expect him to return to the Senate if he can't bring home the one voter demographic the Democratic Party seems determined to scorn.