More Polls Show Slight Romney Lead, But White Share Still Stuck in McCain`s 55% Losing Range
October 10, 2012, 05:31 PM
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Mitt Romney is now widely said to be "surging" in the Presidential polls, although that does seem a little excitable—he`s only 0.8% ahead of Barack Obama in today`s RealClearPolitics Average. Still, several polls do show him slightly ahead.

As usual, the white vote is little discussed, although there`s much fashionable MSM chatter about the female vote, a much less powerful analytic. (Typical example here). Even pollsters often don`t release their white share data, although they must have it. digging has revealed:

  • Rasmussen`s three-day tracking poll released today, October 10, shows Obama down a point, so that Romney is now in the lead 48-47. Romney`s white share, available to its premium Platinum subscribers, is actually down a point, at 55%.
  • The IBD/TIPP poll for October 9 shows Romney ahead 47%-45%. Romney`s white share is 56%.
  • Ipsos/ Reuters Daily Election Tracking released October 9 showed a Romney-Obama tie among likely voters, 45-45. Ipsos does not break out its likely voters by race, but has kindly told us that among its registered voters, where Romney trails 45-42, his white share is only 50% (!)
  • Gallup`s latest (October 9) tracking poll shows Romney ahead 49-47 among likely voters, but does not break out the white vote.

Romney`s white share still seems stalled in the post-Reagan Bush-McCain range. There is still no sign he will even match the 60% share achieved by GOP Congressional candidates in 2010. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down).