Oct. 28: Romney Ripple Or GOP Glacier? Romney Stalls Within Margin Of Error Again, White Share Below 60%
October 29, 2012, 02:38 AM
Print Friendly and PDF

Not so much a Romney Ripple, maybe a GOP glacier: Sunday`s polls show no further progress, maybe a little melting, but still generally ahead although within the margin of error. Romney`s white share is similarly stalled, now generally slightly below the 60% achieved by Congressional GOP candidates in 2010. (More comparisons here—scroll down). It`s a pathetic performance, but it might be enough.

  • Rasmussen Reports this morning (Oct. 28) shows Romney`s lead over Obama down by one point, to 50-47.

This is the SIXTH consecutive day Romney has been at the 50% level, for a three or four point lead.

Rasmussen Report`s Premium Platinum subscribers show Romney`s white share unchanged at 59%, for an unchanged 21-point lead over Obama.

  • Gallup (Oct 28) shows Romney ahead of Obama 50-46, down a point since yesterday.

Gallup obdurately continues to suppress its racial breakdown. On Oct. 16, Romney`s white share was 61%, for a 22 point lead over Obama. That translated into a four-point lead overall. Presumably it is still in this range.

  • ABC News/Washington Post (Oct. 28) shows Romney ahead of Obama 49-48, the same as Friday night. The poll describes the race as a dead heat.

As usual, the Washington Post does not make available the racial breakdown. But ABC hyperlinks to a version of the underlying data sheet that includes the full commentary by pollster Gary Langer. He reports Romney`s white share down two points since yesterday to 58%, for a nineteen-point lead among whites over Obama.

  • IBD/TIPP (Oct. 28) has long been the outlier in reporting an Obama lead, but today it reports Romney is trailing Obama only 44.1-45.4, which it describes as a statistical dead heat.

IBD/TIPP shows Romney`s white share down a point, to 53%—in line with this poll`s recent consistently low reading. But Romney`s lead over Obama among whites has increased slightly, albeit merely to 14 points.

More evidence of Romney`s missed opportunity among Northern whites: a Cincinatti Enquirer/ Ohio News Organization Poll released Oct 28 showed Romney and Obama neck-and-neck 49-49 in Ohio. Romney`s white share: an undistinguished 55%, giving him a mere 12-point lead over Obama.