The Daily Caller has just (April 12) published my latest column, reproduced and hyperlinked below, under the headline The “Trump Effect”—Immigration, Immigrant Displacement Of American Workers Hit The Wall
. In it, I referred to Ed Rubenstein’s April 8 National Data piece March Jobs— Is “Trump Effect” Reversing American Worker Displacement, Illegal Influx? —and also to some further data Ed subsequently sent me—see table below.[BLS Household Data:Table A-7. Employment status of the civilian population by nativity and sex, not seasonally adjusted]
These new numbers are extraordinary. The year-over-year net increase in the foreign-born population peaked at 1.7 million in October 2016, directly before the Presidential election, far above the estimated 900,000-1 million legal influx—suggesting an illegal alien surge was underway in Obama’s last year, as Ed Rubenstein had repeatedly noted. But by March 2017, the year-over-year increase had collapsed to just 56,000, far below the estimated legal influx, suggesting that the mere appearance of Trump has triggered a truly massive exodus of illegals (and/or is deterring legal immigrants). Of course, this trend could be statistical noise, although it has been developing for several months. Or it could reverse just as quickly, for example if illegals realize President Kushner is actually in charge.But for now, it’s a Trump Triumph (or a Sessions Success). The MSM seems strangely reluctant to report this phenomenon (although Fox Business belatedly posted Border Patrol Union President: Illegal Immigration Decline ‘Strictly’ Due to Trump, by Ben Brown, April 12, 2017). More striking to me, because VDARE.com respects comment threads although we lack the resources to run them ourselves: 30 hours after the Daily Caller posted my column, it has generated precisely 0 comments. This is in sharp contrast to my column on Steve King and even my column on why tax cuts aren’t the political magic bullet for Trump they were for Reagan. Partly, of course, it’s because readers don’t like numbers, as I suggest below. Partly, it’s because the American Left doesn’t want to hear that its ticket to electoral hegemony is finally threatened, and it has formidable powers of denial.But partly, I think, it’s because Trump’s Syrian adventure has annoyed his base much more than is generally realized, and they are just not in a mood to give him credit for anything.
The “Trump Effect”—Immigration, Immigrant Displacement Of American Workers Hit The Wall
in financial journalism
taught me that that people aren’t really interested in economic data. They say they are, but (unless
the sky is falling
, as in 2008
) what really grabs them is war
, rock-n-roll etc. etc. Nevertheless, data does sometimes matter and now may be one of these times—it looks like immigration, and immigrant displacement of American workers, has finally hit the wall.
The evidence appeared in the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics Household Survey, which was released last Friday (April 7). [PDF
.] Most commentators grumped about the relatively low job growth rate. But I always look at the analyses prepared by economic consultant Edwin S. Rubenstein
of ESR Research
, previously of the Hudson Institute
and National Review.
This month, Rubenstein points out that annualized growth in the foreign-born workforce has collapsed. It was only 56,000 over the 12 months through March, down from 1,711, 000 for the 12 months ended October 2016—significantly, directly before the Presidential election.
Which is particularly interesting because annual legal
immigration (the Household Survey
doesn’t distinguish between legal and illegal immigrants) has been running at about a million a year. So this new foreign-born workforce total implies a really dramatic and accelerating exodus, which has been overwhelming any continuing inflow since Trump was elected.
Conversely, Rubenstein noted at the time that, beginning in the last year of Obama’s Presidency, the Household Survey showed immigrant workforce growth far in excess of the legal inflow. Obviously, an illegal alien stampede was underway, probably triggered by Democrat promises of Amnesty.
March’s year-over-year foreign workforce growth is the lowest since March, 2009
, the nadir of the Great Recession. Rubenstein thinks the current trend is so powerful that, in the upcoming months, the immigrant presence in the workforce might even begin to shrink.
This effect—heck, let’s call it the “Trump Effect
”—is also visible with immigrant displacement of U.S.-born workers.
This is a bitterly controversial subject. Immigration enthusiasts always hotly deny that displacement exists— “immigrants don’t just take jobs, they also make jobs.” Maybe so, but unfortunately the people whose jobs
immigrants take (e.g. poultry workers
in the Mid-West
) don’t necessarily get the jobs they create (e.g. teaching
illegal aliens’ children, nursing
them in Emergency Rooms
Nevertheless, it’s always been literally true that, if an immigrant has a job, a native-born American doesn’t have that job.
Rubenstein has been tracking this effect for years. When Barack Obama took office, about 15% of persons working in the U.S. were immigrants. In Obama’s last full month, December 2016, the immigrant share had risen to just over 17%. This suggests that Obama-era immigration may have pushed as many as 3.16 million native-born Americans onto the unemployment rolls.
But not anymore. During Trump’s first two full months, immigrant employment fell by 0.26%, while native-born American employment rose by 0.78%. Of course, this is far from enough to reverse the erosion of the Obama years (let alone the Bush years
). But it’s a start. (More details here
What’s going on?
It’s not as if Trump has actually managed to DO that much. His Executive Orders aimed at travel from certain Muslim countries are
being held up
by Leftist judges.
He has not (yet
) reversed Obama’s clearly-unconstitutional
Executive Order temporarily amnestying so-called DREAMers
(basically, any illegal alien under a certain age). After trying to cut back
the so-called “Refugee” inflow (they’re really expedited, subsidized, politically-favored immigrants), he seems for some mysterious reason to have allowed it to resume.
Above all, he hasn’t even proposed legislation reducing legal immigration—let alone passed it.
But it turns out that this doesn’t matter. It’s an extraordinary example of what economists call “jawboning”—producing economic effects through informal pressure.
Ironically, it’s not even Trump’s jawbone, particularly. It’s the Democrats and the Main Stream Media
(to the extent that they can be distinguished). Their hysteria about Trump
has convinced the illegal aliens in the U.S. (and maybe some legal immigrants
) that it’s time to leave.Table A-7. Employment status of the civilian population by nativity and sex, not seasonally adjusted
This comment just in from a Minuteman
who’s been helping guard the border for 14 years:
A friend of mine works port of entry in Nogales and I just got off the phone with him. He told me, “You’re not going to believe the amount of southbound traffic. You know they’re coming up and they got their little trailers pulling their refrigerators, washers, dryers, their big-wheels and their ten-speeds. They’re all going south! We’re not even checking ‘em, we’re just waving ‘em through.”It's self-deportation. They realize the gravy’s over and it’s time to roll. When they go back to wherever they came from then they can apply for visas or passports back into the country. They don’t want to get caught up here. They get caught up here and they lose everything.Some of these people lived here 10, 15, 20 years and they own homes and cars, got businesses. They’re just throwing in the towel and getting while the getting’s good.
What would happen if Trump actually did crack down on immigration?Peter Brimelow is the editor of VDARE.com and author of Alien Nation: Common Sense About America’s Immigration Disaster