As George W. Bush`s reign wound down, more alarming
judgments about the President`s favorite neighbor,
First there was a report here, then an uncharacteristically honest remark there, about our narco-neighbor to the south.
In fact, there was a torrent of truth at the end of the
Bush administration—to the point where bad news about
Even the Wall Street Journal warned of "a failed state next door".
Instability Is a Real Problem, by Joel
Most of the Main Stream Media [MSM] has long treated
border porosity with
Victims included ordinary cops, police chiefs, soldiers, journalists and ordinary Mexicans, as well as members of warring drug gangs whose made up the lion`s share of the fatalities.
Much of the leaking bad news has come from departing
Bush lieutenants who finally made realistic estimates of
"Calderón must, and will, keep the pressure on the cartels, but look, let`s not be naïve – there will be more violence, more blood, and, yes, things will get worse before they get better. That`s the nature of the battle."
more pressure the cartels feel, the more they`ll lash
out like cornered animals. Our folks know exactly how
high the stakes are."
drug violence expected to intensify in `09,
When outgoing CIA chief Michael Hayden left
Given declining border conditions, Homeland Security boss Michael Chertoff put a few more cards on the table recently.
In his January 7th wrap-up published in the New York
Times, Chertoff expressed a realistic view of
From his telephone interview with the NYT, Chertoff said:
"We completed a contingency plan for border violence, so if we did get a significant spillover, we have a surge—if I may use that word—capability to bring in not only our own assets but even to work with" [U.S. Plans Border `Surge` Against Any Drug Wars, By Randal C. Archibold, January 7, 2009]
Chertoff has expressed concern in recent months about Mexican violence. But the DHS contingency plan has not been publicly debated, nor has any announcement of it been made. Department officials said Chertoff had mentioned it only in passing.
It is nice to know that not all Washington officials are oblivious fools, although they often do a fine imitation as a part of the diplomacy expected in their jobs.
Professionals in government are paid the big bucks not to roll their eyes at those words.
Among the most serious reports have appeared recently, one was issued by the National Drug Threat Assessment 2009, published by the Department of Justice in December 2008.
Mexican DTOs [Drug Trafficking Organizations]
represent the greatest organized crime threat to the
Another alarming analysis came from a once familiar C Capitol Hill bigwig, General Barry McCaffrey.
McCaffrey`s analysis warns of deteriorating drug crime
leading to a meltdown of the state, with the
worst imaginable outcome for the
"A failure by the Mexican political system to curtail lawlessness and violence could result of a surge of millions of refugees crossing the US border to escape the domestic misery of violence, failed economic policy, poverty, hunger, joblessness, and the mindless cruelty and injustice of a criminal state."
Another eye-opening report with a similar message of Mexican chaos flowing north was a Defense Department appraisal, the 2008 Joint Operating Environment.
A widely-quoted remark from the paper: "two large and
important states bear consideration for a rapid and
"The Mexican possibility may
seem less likely, but the government, its politicians,
police, and judicial infrastructure are all under
sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and
drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over
the next several years will have a major impact on the
stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by
Additional millions of Mexicans entering this country to
narco-culture of violence and corruption would only
further burden the
Of course, a big indicator of
Members of Congress were likely made aware of the extent
That money could have been more wisely spent at home,
better equip border sheriffs with improved
firepower. But somehow the idea of simply
keeping the bad guys out of the country doesn`t
Now Americans have a new President who has offered few
clues regarding what actual policies and actions toward
Border protection was not debated during the lengthy
(but content-free) Presidential campaign because it was
too connected to the controversial issue of
both the candidates preferred open borders.
Americans simply have no notion what Obama will do if
However, published reports and remarks made about
We cannot know what Obama will do if
Brenda Walker (email
her) lives in