The new exit polling monopoly botched up the big national exit poll so badly this year that we may never have truly reliable demographic data for this election. The National Election Pool data showed solid Kerry leads throughout the country, missing the actual result by five or six points. Toward dawn on Wednesday, the exit poll results were rejiggered to make it look like more like the actual vote counts. Midday on Wednesday, they were fiddled with again to make them even more pro-Bush, this time slopping into overkill.
Who knows what they'll end up with, but at the moment, the exit poll shows Bush up from 54% among whites in 2000 to 58%. The pollsters go on to show Bush up 1 point among "Other" (e.g., American Indians) to 40%, up 2 points among blacks to 11%, up 3 points among Asians to 44%, and up an implausible-sounding 9 points among Hispanics to 44%—still a heavy defeat.
What this means is that, as in the 2002 election, the GOP quietly dropped almost all its widely-celebrated interest in outreach and instead went with a strategy of turning out the traditional Republican base. In the key state of Ohio, for example, last month Bush focused on visiting Republican counties and exciting the party faithful to drag their conservative but less-political friends to the polls.
This is essentially the course of action I laid out for Republican revival back in November of 2000—what VDARE.COM calls "the Sailer Strategy." The essential idea is the mindlessly simple but often overlooked fact that the majority bloc is bigger than all the minority blocs put together. It's both easier and more profitable to do a little better among a big group than to do a lot better among various small groups.
This was the idea that got VDARE.COM banned from Free Republic.
Over time, we'll be able to assemble more indirect data that will help us get a better idea of what the demographic results were. More data will be forthcoming. The Los Angeles Times should release the results of its small scale exit poll on Thursday. Experts will no doubt weigh in after looking at precinct level data.
More later.
More Election 2004 Commentary From Steve Sailer
Although immigration enthusiast Senator Barbara Boxer won an easy victory over her moribund challenger Bill Jones, there is good news from California.
Proposition F which would have permitted noncitizen (illegal alien) parents or guardians of children in public school to votes for candidates for San Francisco's Board of Education is failing.
With 96% of precincts reporting, Proposition F is being rejected 51 percent to 49 percent
Noncitizen voting for school board failing, SF Chronicle, Charlie Goodyear
Wednesday, November 3, 2004
One of the biggest triumphs of Election 2004 for immigration reformers is the defeat of Democratic House Minority Leader Tom Daschle. His successor, former Congressman John Thune, is a moderate on immigration.
Credit the Coalition for the Future American Workers for playing a major role in Daschle's downfall. The Coalition ran a series of ads in South Dakota pointing out to voters that Daschle supported amnesty. And predictably, Daschle demanded through his lawyers that the ads be retracted thereby calling even more attention to his immigration double talk.
CFAW also ran ads in Texas against Congressman Martin Frost that contributed to his defeat.
The Congressional Immigration Reform Caucus will gain another member when Georgia Republican State Senator Tom Price gets to Washington. Price, endorsed by Congressman Tom Tancredo, ran unopposed.
And also in Georgia Republican Senator-elect Johnny Isakson has compiled a favorable voting record on immigration reform issues during his Congressional career.
Congressman Tom Tancredo won easily over pro-open borders Democratic challenger Joanna Conti. Despite a heavily funded all-out effort by immigration enthusiasts led by the First Data Corporation, Tancredo's 60%-39% win proves that money doesn't buy everything...at least in Colorado's 6th District.
