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TABLE 2

 

Projected Republican Share

 Republican Share With half of Nader and Buchanan Voters

Percent of Voting Age Population:
White(a) Black(a) Hispanic Asian(a)
2000 - Nov. 7 48.4% 50.0% 73.8% 11.4% 10.3% 4.4%
2004 48.1% 49.7% 72.4% 11.6% 11.3% 4.8%
2008 47.8% 49.4% 70.8% 11.8% 12.2% 5.2%
2012 47.0% 48.6% 69.3% 12.1% 12.4% 6.2%
2016 47.2% 48.8% 67.8% 12.2% 14.0% 5.9%
2020 47.3% 48.9% 66.3% 12.4% 15.0% 6.3%
2040 45.2% 46.8% 58.6% 13.0% 19.9% 8.5%
2060 43.7% 45.3% 51.4% 13.3% 24.8% 10.5%
2080 42.6% 44.2% 45.9% 13.3% 28.8% 12.1%
2100 41.8% 43.4% 41.6% 13.1% 32.0% 13.3%
 

a. Non-Hispanic.

Note: Republican share held at 2000 level for each group, i.e.: White, 54%; Black 8%; Hispanic 31%; Asian 41%. Voter participation rate: White 56%; Black 45%; Hispanic 35%; Asian and other, 43%.

Source: Based on Census Bureau projections of voting age population released in 2000.

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October 20, 2001