October 17, 2006
Census Bureau Distortions Hide Immigration Crisis
Real Numbers Much Higher
Virginia Deane Abernethy, Ph.D.
Vanderbilt University School of
Medicine
Chairman, Board of Directors,
Population-Environment Balance
October, 2006
Publications on the size and growth
rate of the U.S. population seem designed to confuse
rather than enlighten. The Census Bureau made up for
large annual underestimates of population growth during
the 1990s with a 12 million person bump in the census
year. Unfazed, it perpetuates error through massively
undercounting illegal aliens.
The Census Bureau [CB] is not
unique in massaging statistics, possibly in the service
of policy rather than accuracy. As an example, economist
John Williams'
www.shadowstats.com addresses other seriously
misleading statistics. Williams computes current
unemployment and inflation numbers using criteria
standardized by the government during the
1940s-1970s—criteria since altered to the extent that
past and present cannot be meaningfully compared.
A 12 Million Person Bump in One
Year
A recent smoking gun that reflects
on the CB’s underreporting is that as much as a 12
million increase in the U.S. population, from as low as
272.7 million in 1999 to a 284.5 million high in 2000,
had to be accommodated in one year. For comparison, the
CB’s population growth estimates in other years of the
1990s decade center approximately on 2.5 million
annually.
Allowing for the standard 2.5
million increase in the tenth year, and spreading the
remaining 9.5 million increase over each year of the
decade would add 0.9 million in annual growth. A better
estimate of U.S. population growth during the 1990s
would have been 3.4 million annually.
The startling 12 million person
one-year increase in the CB’s 2000 report reflects
findings of the 10-year census. With introspection,
someone might have asked if the 12 million leap was
enough, particularly in view of reports that illegal
alien border crossings were increasing dramatically.
Much was made of failure to count
the homeless in censuses before 2000, but the 1990s
underestimates seem mostly the result of not taking into
account the illegal aliens settling in the United
States. For example, the CB estimated 5 to 7 million
illegal aliens present in 2000, whereas other sources
[see below] were quick to estimate 18 to 28 million
illegal aliens at the least.
If 11 to 23 million more illegal
aliens than the CB expected - and failed to count –
actually were in the United States in 2000, then the
real population of that year was already close to
exceeding 300 million. In fact, the evidence
overwhelmingly indicates that the 300 million mark was
passed in the year 2000. This October’s
much-heralded announcement that the United States just
reached 300 million in 2006 will be another scene in a
great charade.
Long Term Estimates Also Revised
But Still Short
The CB also revises upward its
long-term projections but perhaps not enough. An
example pointed out in demographer Lindsey Grant’s
newest book, The Collapsing Bubble,
is that the CB
projects the likeliest size of the U.S. population in
2100 to be 600 million. This is 100 million greater than
the CB’s middle projection made as recently as 1994 – a
20 percent revision upward!
Reviewing Grant’s book, Andrew
Ferguson hazards that the CB’s new middle projection
should have been still higher. If the "U.S.
population continues to grow at the rate of the three
closing decades of the last century, 1.06% per year,
then by 2100 [the] U.S. population would be 810
million"[1]
The Census Bureau Perpetuates
Error
Going forward from year 2000, a
chastened CB might have been expected to correct the
assumptions that had led to massive underestimation.
But no, the 2001 through 2005 estimates return to
the fiction that the U.S. population grows each year at
the relatively stately pace of slightly less than 3
million, at a rate of 0.9 percent annually in the latest
year, 2005[2]
. The illegal alien addition to the population is
assumed to be 500,000 annually.
Massive Undercounting of Illegal
Aliens
Reports of much
higher-than-reported illegal aliens entering, and in,
the United States can be tracked almost back to the 2000
census.
In February, 2002, a Border Patrol
Supervisor of 27 years service testified before Congress
that the number of illegal aliens was several times the
CB estimate. He stated, "According to various Mexican
media and official Mexican government sources, the
country of Mexico has 18 million of its citizens
residing illegally in the United States at this very
minute"[3].
Besides Mexicans, what of Filipinos, Indians, Chinese,
Koreans, Vietnamese, Eastern Europeans, Irish,
Brazilians, Guatemalans, Hondurans and Haitians
illegally in the United States?
Using financial and employment
data, analysts for Bear Stearns Asset Management also
estimate a number much higher than anything considered
by the Census Bureau. They concluded in early 2004 that,
"The number of illegal immigrants in the United
States may be as high as 20 million people, more than
double the official 9 million people estimated by the
Census Bureau"[4].
Time Magazine asserted, also
in 2004, that more than 4000 illegal aliens walk across
just the Mexico/ Arizona border each day!
Nationwide, an estimated 3 million enter annually, and
as many as "15 million" are thought to remain in
the United States.[5]
Department of Education reports are
also suggestive. Comparing projected and actual
enrollments for the latest years the data were compiled
yields this: The projected K-12 increase in public
school enrollments from 2002 to 2003 was 11,000 pupils.
But "actual 2003 enrollments came in 339,000 above
2002’s level – more than 30 times the
projected rise"[6].
Where did these children come from, if not illegal
immigration?
Patrick Buchanan’s 2006 book, State of Emergency: Third World Invasion and Conquest of America
states that
the Border Patrol [BP] apprehends 150,000 illegal aliens
breaking into the United States each month, amounting to
1.8 million apprehensions annually[7].
Some illegal border crossers may be
apprehended more than once, although most – 70 percent -
make it in a first or second attempt, and 92 percent
make it eventually according to the Center for
Comparative Immigration Studies at UC, San Diego[8].
In recent testimony before the House Judiciary
Committee, Wayne Cornelius, director of the Center,
stated that 92 to 97 percent succeed on two tries or
less[9].
The BP estimates that, for each
illegal alien apprehended, 3 to 5 succeed in entering.
Taking the middle figure [4], then 4 x 1.8 million
annual apprehensions = 7.2 million aliens enter
illegally each year.
Moreover, many foreigners enter
supposedly for a visit but never leave. In 1992,
approximately 150,000 more foreign passengers arrived in
US airports than left[10].
USA TODAY reports that "at least 3.8 million"
illegal aliens arrived legally but remained after visas
expired[11].
This could be, in part, H1B workers who stayed –
contrary to the terms of their visa—after termination of
their job.
Conservatively, assume that just 5
million – rather than 7.2 million plus visa over-stayers
- actually enter the United States each year. Of these 5
million, assume that 40 percent remain indefinitely.
This calculation suggests that 2 million illegal aliens
melt permanently into the U.S. population annually. If
60 percent stay, then approximately 3 million new
illegal aliens remain in the United States annually.
Compare that to the Census Bureau’s puny estimate of
500,000 illegal aliens staying annually!
A high proportion of illegal aliens
planning to stay on a permanent basis seems reasonable
on various counts. Recent polls show that 46 percent of
Mexicans would like to move to the United States[12].
Once here, illegal aliens seemingly wish to stay: A 2005
poll found that 4-to-1, or 80 percent, would stay if
given a good opportunity[13].
Rather than risk repeatedly re-crossing, illegal alien
men are increasingly likely to be joined by their
families[14].
Also suggesting long term residence
in the United States is the calculation that "Mexico
will take in a record $24 billion in remittances this
year"[15].
Transients do not earn that kind of spare change,
particularly in the low skill jobs available to most
Mexican and Central American workers.
Unrealistic Estimates
Our estimated low figure, 2 million
illegal aliens staying annually, more than explains why
the 2000 census required the CB to show a leap of 12
million in the population in one year. The high figure
of 3 million strongly suggests that the census missed a
good many! That is likely: What illegal alien family
member will hop up and say, "Count me"?
The question arises, does the CB
have an agenda other than factual reporting of
population statistics? Errors since 1990 have all gone
in the same direction: Underestimation of real growth
and growth rates.
Moreover, the revisions and
catch-up numbers are underplayed. Who knew that the 2000
census forced a hike of 12 million in the estimated size
of the population? Rarely is the public told that the
U.S. population is growing very fast – by far the
fastest rate of any developed country in the world.
Or that the growth rate itself appears to be growing?
The Census Bureau's misinformation
appears consistent with intent to soothe a public that
is becoming alarmed at the scale of immigration and the
rapidity of population growth. Underestimates also go
far to discredit those who call for a moratorium on both
legal and illegal immigration, and for ending automatic
citizenship awarded to children born in the United
States to illegal alien parents. Accurate reporting of
numbers would make ending birth-right citizenship
politically compelling and would strengthen the argument
for a catch-our-breath moratorium on legal immigration.
One may fairly conclude that the
Census Bureau is a willing participant to misinforming
the public on the state of the nation. Perhaps this is a
strategy designed to re-direct and lull voters into
complacency so that they forgive their Representatives
and Senators who legislate in favor of illegal aliens
and massive legal immigration, rather than in the
interest of citizens of the United States.
Massive Undercounting Begins
with Legal Immigration
Throughout the 1990s, the CB has
nailed legal immigration at approximately 1 million
annually. This entails omitting the annual refugee
number, which has varied from 45,000 to 142,000 and the
asylee number, approximately 150,000 annually. Arrivals
under student programs and the H1B and other
employer-sponsored programs and their families, and
"extended voluntary departure" categories are also
ignored, although these "temporary" visa
categories often become de facto permanent residents.
Since the 1970s, the Census Bureau
has been the target of legal actions by State and local
government because census numbers are the basis for
allocating billions of dollars in federal funds.
Recently, the Census Bureau acknowledged undercounting
the population of Washington D.C. by 6 percent.[16]
Also compare the CB numbers with
those of another government agency, the United States
Citizenship and Immigration Services [USCIS] constituted
under the Homeland Security Department. For 2005, the
USCIS Yearbook estimate of permanent legal
additions to the US population is 1,224,078 [including
legal permanent residents, refugees, asylees, and
orphans]. This is the same year for which the CB
estimates less than 1 million immigrants altogether.
The CB appears to be missing
one-quarter million persons who legally entered the
United States in 2005, people who will be permanent
additions to the US population.
Real Population Numbers
The U.S. population passed 300
million in year 2000. The current U.S population is
approximately 327 million.
The latest year for which vital
statistics are reported, 2004, saw approximately 1.7
million more total births than deaths. Of the
approximately 4.1 million total births, 945,000 or
nearly one quarter were Hispanic births[17].
Additionally, the data suggest that between 2 and 3
million illegal aliens stay in the United States
and more than 1 million legal immigrants arrive
in the United States annually.
This numbers indicate a faster rate
of population growth and a shorter doubling time than
either the annual rate calculated over a 30-year rate
interval by Andrew Ferguson [1.06 percent annually,
projecting 66 years to double] or the CB rate reported
for the 1990s [1.2 percent annual growth, projecting 58
years to double][18].
Summing annual growth figures [1.7
million natural increase, 1 million legal immigrants,
and 2 or 3 million illegal aliens who stay], one sees
that, each year, the population grows by 4.7 to 5.7
million. The annual growth rate is between 1.4 and 1.7
percent. If 1.4 percent, the population doubling time is
50 years.
The rate of growth has
itself been growing. If acceleration of the growth
rate continues, we are on trend to pass the 1
billion mark in approximately 70 years.
Is today’s 327 million "many"?
Consider that the United States fought and won World War
II with a population of 135 million— less than half
Addendum: Population Reference
Bureau Reliance on Erroneous CB Numbers
The Population Reference Bureau [PRB]
publishes CB numbers in periodic Bulletins, intermittent
US Population Data Sheets [USPDS] and the widely
consulted annual World Population Data Sheet [WPDS]. The
PRB explains, "For countries with good censuses and
complete registration of births and deaths [primarily
more developed countries], the latest data are used from
national statistical offices"[19].
The 1999 U.S. population is
reported differently in two PRB publications that both
appeared in 2000. "The American Work Force"
reports 272.7 million. The World Population Data Sheet [WPDS
2000] reports 275.6 million [jumping twice the usual
amount from the previous year].
The reported population for 2000
also fluctuates. In December, 2001, the "PRB
Bulletin: What Drives U.S. Population Growth," p.4,
reported year 2000 population as 281.4 million.
Meanwhile, the WPDS 2001 had shown 2000 population as
284.5 [jumping 12 million from the first-reported 1999
figure].
The U.S. population in 2015 was
projected to be 310.1 million [USPDS 1999]. The PRB web
site www.prb.org states that the average growth
of the U.S. population between 1990 and 2000 was 1.2
percent. Reporting 2005 data [WPDS 2006] PRB states that
the U.S. population growth rate is 0.9 percent annually
– 0.6 from natural increase and 0.3 from immigration.
They project population growth of 40 percent between
2005 and 2050 [WPDS 2006]. Credibility check?
The PRB no longer reports
population doubling time. But if one had confidence in
the annual percentage growth rate, it would be easy to
compute. The formula is:
"70 divided by annual percentage
growth rate = number of years to double" [e.g. 70 /
1.2 = 58.3 years to double. Or, 70 / 1.4 = 50 years to
double].
226.5
million. April 1, 1980 census [US Population Data Sheet
1981]
241
million in 1985. [World Population Data Sheet 1986]
243.8
million in1986 [WPDS 1987]
246.1
million in1987 [WPDS 1988
248.8
million in 1988 [WPDS 1989]
251.4
million in 1989 [WPDS 1990]
248.7
million [sic] April 1, 1990 census [USPDS 1990]
252.8
million in 1990. [WPDS 1991]
255.6
million in 1991. [WPDS 1992]
258.3
million in 1992 [WPDS 1993]
260.8
million in 1993 [WPDS 1994]
263.2
million in 1994 [WPDS 1995]
265.2
million in 1995 [WPDS 1996]
267.7
million in 1996 [WPDS 1997]
267.6
million [sic] in 1997 [USPDS 1998]
270.3
million in 1998 [USPDS 1999]
272.7
million in 1999. [PRB Bulletin: The American Workforce,
2000]
275.6
million in 1999 [WPDS 2000]
281.4
million in 2000 [PRB Bulletin: What Drives US Population
Growth, 2001]
284.5
million in 2000 [WPDS 2001 reflecting census results]
[NOTE: from the smallest 1999 number to the largest 2000
number is a nearly 12 million jump]
287.4
million in 2001 [WPDS 2002]
291.5
million in 2002 [WPDS 2003]
293.6
million in 2003 [WPDS 2004]
296.5
million in 2004 [WPDS 2005]
299.1
million in 2005 [WPDS 2006]
.............
Additional Note: Going forward, the
Census Bureau’s returns to estimating sedate growth
centering approximately on 3 million or less annually.
WPDSs published in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, and
2006 state that the population for the preceding years,
respectively, was 284.5 million; 287.4 million; 291.5
million; 293.6 million; 296.5 million; and 299.1
million. This quiet sequence brings one to gentle
anticipation of the much-heralded announcement that the
United States will pass its 300 millionth person in
October, 2006.
The 300 million in October 2006 is
nonsense. That number was passed some years ago. The CB
undercounts legal immigration by omitting whole
categories. Since 2000, illegal immigration probably
accounts for most of the misinformation. Whereas the CB
estimated approximately 11 million illegal aliens in the
United States in 2005, and now apparently concedes up to
12 million, various credible sources put the number much
higher.
Implications of Rapid U.S.
Population Growth
Some ecologists, labor economists,
and conservationists say that rapid population growth,
regardless of its source, is a danger. This concern
departs from the United Nations and Wall Street
Journal view, which decries European and Japanese
economic and social health because these countries’
populations are on the verge of stabilizing.
So what, if anything, is wrong with
an exploding US population?
First, native-born Americans
spontaneously chose small family size starting in
approximately 1970. The majority would probably be
better off economically and ecologically today if,
congruent with the recommendations of the 1972
Rockefeller Report[20],
the U.S. population had begun to stabilize 30 years ago.
Second, current population
growth is being forced on native-born Americans by
immigration. Approximately 90 percent of growth
results from the annual immigration flow and the
descendants of post-1970 immigrants[21].
Births to immigrant women represent
births that, but for immigration, would not have been
U.S. births. The Associated Press reports that Mexican
women in Georgia and North Carolina average 180 births
per 1000 women of reproductive age[22].
This is nearly three times the rates of
native-born American women. In 2004, the fertility rate
of non-Hispanic black women was 66.7 per 1000; of
non-Hispanic white women, 58.5 per 1000 women of
reproductive age[23].
Moreover, immigration accelerates
world population growth. Steven Camarota of the
Center for Immigration Studies writes, "Analysis of
data collected by Census Bureau in 2002 shows that women
from the top-10 immigrant-sending countries living in
the United States collectively tend to have higher
fertility than women in their home countries. As a
group, immigrants from these countries have 23 percent
more children than women in their home countries, adding
to world population growth…… Among Mexican immigrants in
the United States, for example, fertility averages 3.5
children per woman compared to 2.4 children per women in
Mexico. Among Chinese immigrants, fertility is 2.3 in
the United States compared to 1.7 in China. Immigrants
from Canada have 1.9 children compared to 1.5 children
in Canada."[24]
Third, current immigration comes
overwhelmingly from Third World countries that have
cultures vastly different from ours. These
immigrants may not wish to assimilate and, indeed, may
have difficulty adjusting.
The territorial integrity of
the United States may develop into a further contentious
issue that divides citizens from Mexican immigrants. A
June 2002 Zogby poll reveals that a "substantial
majority of Mexican citizens believe that southwestern
America properly belongs to Mexico."[25].
Fourth, rapid increases in the
labor force have resulted in a 30-year trend toward
lower real, inflation-adjusted income for the 80
percent of Americans who depend on wages and salaries.
Immigration drives most of labor force growth and thus
accounts for virtually all of the recent income
depression.
Economist George Borjas observes
that immigration depresses wages and displaces Americans
from jobs, costing native-born American workers $195
billion annually[26],[27].
In 2000, the wages of native-born American workers were
reduced by an average 3.2 percent[28].
The impact is not even. Citing a
current Northeastern University study, the New York
Times states that "illegal immigrants contributed
to a sharp decline in employment of teenage and young
adult Americans"[29].
The effect on young and less-educated workers is not new
news. Most recently, however, Borjas reported that the
wage impact is "most intense" at the two ends of
the native-born education range"[30].
In addition to depressing wages,
immigrant workers displace Americans. Steven Camarota
analyzes CB data, finding that "between March 2000
and March 2004, the number of adults working actually
increased, but all of the net change went to immigrant
workers"[31].
Andrew Sum and his colleagues at
Northeastern University concur. Since 2000, immigrants
have taken more than 100 percent of net new jobs, that
is, both capturing new jobs and displacing Americans
from existing jobs[32]
.
A further, fiscal, problem
is that many Third World immigrants are very low
skilled. Consequently, they do not pay taxes
commensurate with the costs they impose on communities
and States.
Professor Donald Huddle estimates
that between 1996 and 2006, immigrants cost taxpayers an
average of $93 billion annually, net of any taxes
immigrants pay[33].
In view of the unexpectedly high flow of immigrants,
Huddle’s numbers would, today, be adjusted higher.
The National Research Council’s
well-received report, The New Americans estimates
that each legal or illegal immigrant without a high
school education imposes a net [after subtracting all
taxes the immigrant pays] lifetime cost on taxpayers of
$89,000 in direct services. With a high-school
education, the average fiscal impact per immigrant is
still negative, $31,000[34].
The figures are significant insofar as the average
Mexican and Central American has less than an eighth
grade education.
Economist Lester Thurow’s 1990s
analysis of the cost of population growth – without
reference to whether the growth is organic or from
immigration – concludes that maintaining the quality of
infrastructure requires a nation to commit 12.5 percent
of its GDP for each 1 percent of population growth[35].
A community study on infrastructure costs associated
population growth is congruent. Eben Fodor calculated in
the 1990s that each new three-person residential unit
burdened taxpayers with an average of more than $15,000
in new requirements for capital improvements, not
counting annual operating costs[36].
Less immediately evident but
powerfully important in the long run, population growth
harms the nation through depleting its natural wealth
– as documented by Carrying Capacity Network, a
non-profit grassroots organization that advocates an
immigration moratorium. One acre of land is lost to
highways and urbanization for each person added to the
U.S. population; each person uses 2,800 gallons of oil
equivalents and 530,000 gallons of water per year[37],[38],[39],[40]
One hesitates to mention the
contentious Kyoto Treaty, which would require the
United States to cut its total greenhouse gas
emissions to 7 percent below the 1990 level. With
population growth, this target becomes ludicrous.
Instead of an average 7 percent per capita
emissions reduction—as would have been the target with a
1990s-size population size - required
restrictions become ever more stringent as the
population grows.
Such ecological losses and
challenges are separate from the loss of community
public spiritedness that follows rapid growth and
multiplying languages and cultures. Immigration
advocates are challenged to show one fast-growing,
multicultural society that is cohesive, democratic and
smoothly functioning.
Subjectively, many Americans see
their communities, schools, and hospital emergency rooms
flooded with people who speak a language different from
their own. They see both hospitals close from
skyrocketing costs for uncompensated care and also
rising tax bills to fund services for aliens who lack
healthcare insurance. The medically uninsured appear to
increase by approximately 1 million annually. How many
are illegal aliens? How many are among the least
fortunate Americans or established immigrants displaced
from jobs by illegal aliens? How many Americans become
ill with infectious diseases that had long been
eradicated from the United States but have been
reintroduced through mass immigration?[41].
The tally of losses from mass
immigration suggests that a large price is paid for
so-called cheap labor and for advancing the financial
and political elite’s agenda of erasing borders and
integrating Canada, Mexico and the United States into
the Partnership for Prosperity and Security, a.k.a.
North American Union[42].
Middle class Americans, possibly to be joined by
Canadians, would pay the greater part of the bill.
A healthy respect for probable
errors in Census Bureau data advances the case for
putting enforcement with the purpose of stopping
illegal immigration and dramatically reducing legal
immigration at the top of the legislative and executive
branch agenda. A catch-our-breath moratorium on
all immigration should be a further goal of domestic
policy. Immigration legislation should be debated on the
basis of accurate demography as well as economic and
social data that recognize costs associated with
population growth, the role of immigration, and the
costs and benefits of additional immigration.
Footnotes
Ferguson, Andrew R.B.
Review of The Collapsing Bubble, by Lindsey Grant.
Optimum Population Trust, Great Britain,
September, 2006.
Justich, Robert, Ng, Betty.
The Underground Labor Force is Rising to the Surface.
New York: Bear Stearns Asset Management, January 3,
2005.
Haub, Carl and Kent, M.M. "Frequently Asked Questions
About the PRB World Population Data Sheet," p.1.
PRB: Washington D.C: August 2005.
20
President's Commission on Population Growth and the
American Future. Population Growth and the American
Future (the Rockefeller Report). New York: New
American Library, 1972.
Camarota, Steven A. Births to Immigrants in America,
1970 to 2002. Backgrounder, Center for
Immigration Studies, Washington, D.C. July, 2005;Center
for Immigration Studies, Immigration Statistics.
Washington D.C., various dates.
Camarota, Steven A.
Birth Rates Among Immigrants in America:
Comparing Fertility in the U.S. and Home Countries.
Washington D.C: Center for Immigration Studies, October
2005.
Cited by Tom Barrett.
Publisher@ConservativeTruth.org April 18, 2005.
Camarota, Steven A.
A Jobless Recovery? Immigrant Gains and Native Losses.
Washington D.C: Center for Immigration Studies,
October, 2004.
Sum, Andrew et al. "Foreign
Immigration and the Labor Force of the United States."
Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern
University, July, 2004].
Huddle, Donald. The Net Costs of Immigration: The
Facts, the Trends, and the Critics. Carrying
Capacity Network, October 22, 1996.
Cosman, Madeleine. Illegal Aliens and American Medicine,
Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons 17:1
(Spring, 2005);
http://www.jpands.org/.
